That’s all it’s been since the Boston Celtics were eliminated from the postseason. It feels like weeks ago. That’s how much “drama” has been floating around about the team.

Well, not so much the team, more like Jaylen Brown.

In the space of seven days, we’ve had not one but two livestreams, a presser from Brad Stevens, and hours upon hours of speculation.

We, as Celtics fans, have been through a lot.

It all started with one of Brown’s first livestreams of the offseason.

“This group is a special group. I’m so proud of this group and the way we played,” Brown said. “I’m so proud, and it was my favorite year of my basketball career.”

Plenty has been said about that comment. Even more has been written. I chose to take a few days off to begin the postseason for planning purposes. So, i’ve watched a lot of this stuff from the sidelines.

I’ve seen the takes against what Brown said…You know, it’s funny how this is his favorite season when it coincides with Jayson Tatum being out with an Achilles injury. It's weird that his favorite season ended in surrendering a 3-1 lead to be eliminated in the first round — especially when he has a championship season under his belt.

I’ve seen the takes understanding what Brown said…He assumed a leadership role. He helped push a group of young guys to develop. There were no expectations or external pressures. He got to lead a team.

Then, Brown went back on a live, added context and doubled down.

“Y’all can clip this up: This was my favorite season of my career,” Brown said. “I will say it even louder. I’ll stand on it. I’ll triple down, quadruple down. Whatever y’all want me to say, chat. I’m coming on here to give context and talk about certain things. But I’m not really here to clear up no backlash.”

He didn’t stop there.

“You got to see all of these guys, all of my teammates, grow,” Brown added. “I got to see them overcome adversity as a group, up close and personal. Obviously, we’re not satisfied with the result. But to fight and maneuver through adversity and grow, and galvanize with a bunch of guys and to have that mindset and approach, this was my favorite season.”

Ok, this is fair. Talk yo talk JB.

But don’t be shocked when talking your talk leads to split opinions. Or, when those in the media who have used your partnership with Tatum as a tool to try to create friction re-emerge out of the woodwork.

The truth is, we don’t know the truth about Brown and Tatum’s relationship. Even those with locker room and practice access can’t claim to know that. They’re seeing both of them in a work setting. Of course, they’re going to be professional — it’s a trait we love about both of them.

However, we’ve heard from numerous people who have been part of the Celtics roster that Brown and Tatum genuinely get on. Just two months ago, Evan Turner was on the Celtics Chronicle podcast saying that exact thing.

“I think it’s funny ’cause I’ve seen it up close,” Turner said. “After the first few minutes when I was around ’em, I’m like, oh, these dudes don’t hate on it. Like, they like each other. They have ultimate respect for each other.”

Turner continued.

“  There was no negative, no side eye, no anything. They know who they are, they know where they’re going…  Those dudes are elite, and I think as young individuals, young men, you just gotta let ’em sit back and cook and let them rock this generation.”

I don’t know about you, but I’m deferring to guys with experience of being with both Tatum and Brown behind the scenes, on long flights, with the team after big wins and tough losses. If they say these two get on, that’s all I need to hear.

The problem is, Brown’s comments were only part of the problem. We also had the Tracy McGrady of it all.

“His frustration lies deeply in the organization and other things that we really don’t have the details. It’s just a lot of stuff I’ve been hearing just going on with the Boston organization with JB,” McGrady said on his “Cousins” podcast. “I think part of him is like, ‘I showed you guys more of who I am as a basketball player not only what I did on the basketball court but the leadership I displayed within this team and you’ve seen that.’ Not having our best player in (Jayson Tatum). You’ve seen a different side of me and what I’m able to bring to the game of basketball. So, all that stuff just came into play with him and his frustration.”

Brown and Brad Stevens both addressed this. Both played it down. Stevens basically said, “Well, that’s news to me.” While Brown was like, “And if it was up to me, I could play in Boston for the next 10 years.”

A notable observation, which quite a few of us caught, was the choice to repeat “if it was up to me.” He must have said it three or four times.

The truth is, Brown has some say if he remains in Boston for the rest of his career, but he’s not the only one who can make a decision like that. Brad can also throw a similar curveball.

And that’s what leads us to the elephant in the room…Brown’s impending extension eligibility.

Brown will be eligible for a two-year $141.9 million contract extension this summer. That’s roughly $71 million per year. Based on this past season’s performance, that’s money well spent, right?

Not so fast.

Brown’s current contract runs until 2029. He’ll be 32 by the time that season ends. Any extension he signs won’t kick in until the 2029-30 season, when he’ll be turning 33.

Do you want to pay Jaylen Brown north of $70 million a year for his age 33 and 34 seasons?

That’s the decision Stevens has to make.

Not if Brown would be worth $70 million next year, but when he’s at the tail-end of his prime, three years away from now. This is the same Jaylen Brown who has been dealing with knee tendinopathy for years, by the way.

How Stevens answers that question will likely set up how things play out during the summer. Because, let’s face it, Brown’s trade value will likely never be higher than it is right now. Furthermore, he’s probably not going to take too kindly to not being given an extension after the season he just produced.

“If it was up to me.”

Sorry, JB, but this one isn’t up to you. However, how you choose to move forward, should the Celtics opt against extending you this season, is certainly in your control.

That’s why I’m sitting on the fence right now. The key variable in any and all Jaylen Brown trade and/or frustration discussions is what the Celtics decide to do regarding an extension.

If Boston extends him, Brown isn’t going anywhere — even next season. I mean, how many teams are going to want to trade for a 30-year-old with a contract that’s going to be paying him $70 million for the final two years of his deal? And even if they do want to trade for him, how are they making the money work?

An extension near guarantees Brown will be in the final stages of his career before he’s truly a trade or free agent target for any other team around the NBA.

Does he want that, though? Does Brown want five more years of being the 1B next to Tatum? Would he not prefer being the top option on a different roster, experiencing many of the things he found so much joy in this season?

I can’t answer that. Neither can you. And neither can the media.

That’s for Jaylen Brown to decide.

Of course, if the Celtics opt against extending his contract, the rumor mill is going to hit hyperdrive, and honestly, I think there will be at least a few embers to the smoke that will flood our timelines.

Suddenly, Brown will seem a lot more attainable.

Does that mean we’d see a deal to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo? Maybe. Maybe not.

Does that mean Boston could find itself receiving countless trade offers from around the league? I’d hazard a guess at the answer being ‘yes.’

Brown’s future in Boston has been a topic of discussion for years. Unfortunately, his recent comments, coupled with what T-Mac said (and how close he is with Brown), opened the floodgates for widespread speculation.

That speculation isn’t going away any time soon.

In fact, the only thing that will build a dam for that floodwater will be the extension itself.

After a career year for Brown, Boston finds itself with a tough decision to make. What it chooses to do will likely set up what we come to expect from the offseason.

One way or another, we should get some clarity in the coming months. Until then, buckle up, because I don’t think the past week’s turbulence is the only patch we’re going to hit — hopefully I’m wrong.

Nevertheless, it’s time to look forward.

If you’ve tuned into any of the end-of-season Celtics Chronicle podcasts in the past few days, odds are you’ve heard me talking about the need for a positionally versatile big man.

When watching the series against Philly, the lack of a big man who could enable Joe Mazzulla to lean into a switch-everything system on defense was a clear hole in the roster. We’ve seen how beneficial that level of defensive switchability can be — it was an option during the 2024 championship run, and for the years Al Horford was on the roster.

I’m not championing to replace Neemias Queta as the starting five. If that happens, it happens. He’s proven he has a role to play with the Celtics. What I am championing is plugging a gap in the roster that could have made a legitimate difference in the series the team just lost. More importantly, a role that would have been key moving through the deeper rounds, too.

If that role were to be key this season, it would undoubtedly be just as important next season.

With that in mind, I wanted to kick off the offseason content by looking at a couple of bigs who fit the positionally versatile billing I’m speaking about. Some are better fits than others, and the list is far from exhaustive. Oh, and some are attainable; others are highly unlikely to be pried away from their current situation.

Let’s dive in.

Onyeka Okongwu

In terms of a positionally versatile big, Onyeka Okongwu is the dream addition. He’s enjoyed a strong season for the Atlanta Hawks, cementing himself as a key member of their rotation and their defensive identity.

Okongwu has taken a leap as a perimeter shooter, too, upping his attempts from 2 per game last season (which was a career high) to 5.2 this season. Importantly, he shot a career high from three during the current campaign, hitting 37.6%.

If Boston wanted a long-term replacement for Horford, Okongwu would be the closest they were going to get. How fitting, then, that he would also be making the jump from Atlanta if the Celtics were to find a way of prying him loose.

Okongwu isn’t someone you can ask to switch onto guards with complete confidence. However, he’s been a solid isolation defender on the perimeter when finding himself in those spots. Boston would easily be able to lean into a higher-pressure defensive system, switching, hedging or playing at the level of the screen without needing to rely on dropping as the ball-handler probes.

In terms of contract, Okongwu is on a somewhat team friendly $16.1 million deal next season, and will have two years remaining on his $61.9 million contract. Unfortunately, Okongwu looks set to be a key part of the rebuilding Hawks, so, unless something changes this summer, I don’t expect to see him swapping teams.

Oso Ighodaro

Oso Ighodaro just completed his second season in the NBA. He doesn’t shoot threes and is still adapting to the league. However, he’s proven himself to be a legitimate defender who can operate in multiple systems and hold his own when isolated out on the perimeter.

I wouldn’t trust him to be switched onto smaller ball-handlers for stretches, but in momentary spurts while containing movement, he would probably handle himself quite well. He’s a disruptive presence when anchoring a unit and has the motor to get up the floor when passing lanes have been picked, or the team is on a break.

Given where the Phoenix Suns are in their current timeline, it’s hard to see them parting with a cost-controlled big man that has shown genuine upside in his role. However, we’re talking about the Suns, so we can’t rule anything out, especially when we’re discussing moves that would fall within the questionable category.

I could see Joe Mazzulla finding ways to make Ighodaro a key member of Boston’s rotation, on both sides of the ball. He wouldn’t be a bad pickup, but again, it feels more like wishful thinking at this point.

Al Horford

Good ol’ reliable.

Instead of trying to replace Al Horford, why not try to bring him back? Granted, it would be a short-term fix. A season, maybe two, tops. But it’s clear that his skillset was missing in the postseason, and even at his age, Horford’s ability to control angles, spread the floor and guard multiple positions (somewhat) makes him a valuable addition.

Horford has a player option for the upcoming season. I’d love for Tatum to pick up the phone and convince his favorite teammate to make another return to the Celtics. I doubt it happens. The fanbase seems pretty annoyed Horford walked for a second time, and we still don’t know what led to his decision to leave in the first place.

Still, bringing Horford back would give the Cs some breathing room as they searched for his longer-term replacement.

Grant Williams

While we’re on the topic of bringing back old names, Grant Williams is another guy who could give you some positional versatility on the defensive end. Ok, I get it, some people find him a little grating, and his impact outside of his switchability can sometimes be questionable, but let’s be real, there was a time (when he was calling himself Batman) that we viewed him as a potential Horford replacement.

Williams will be entering the final year of his current contract next season. He’s coming off a major injury. I can’t imagine it would be too hard to prise him away from the Hornets, although he might want to stick around due to them being his hometown team and all that.

I always valued Grant higher than most. However, I don’t think Mazzulla valued him too much during their lone year together. Nevertheless, he’s another option that fits the type of mold that I’d be looking at this summer, even if it does mean re-treading a former player.

Day’Ron Sharpe

Day’Ron Sharpe was linked with the Celtics last summer and again at the trade deadline. Out of all the names on this list, he feels like the most attainable and one of the better fits. One thing that really stands out is that the advanced analytics love him, and that seems to be something the Celtics seek out in their bigs — we’ve all heard about the shooting data Boston used to get a jump on bringing in Luka Garza…

Sharpe fits the mold of what the Celtics are missing perfectly. He’s young, switchable, a solid rebounder and can defend in space or when isolated. His lack of size and athleticism is somewhat of a concern, but you have size in both Neemy and Garza, and Neemy brings the bounce. That’s the point of a big-man-by-committee approach: you get something different from each guy.

Sharpe is entering the final year of his current deal — assuming the Brooklyn Nets pick up his team options, which they should. At $6.25 million for the year, Boston could easily match his salary in a trade, although they will have to accept paying him more to stick around longer-term.

In terms of fit, attainability, and long-term upside, Sharpe is arguably the most viable candidate to fill the spot Nikola Vucevic will be leaving behind — regardless of whether Amari Williams gets additional opportunities or not. He should certainly be viewed as a trade candidate this summer. Whether things will shake out that way is a totally different thing.

Moussa Diabate

Oh, this would be dope!

Moussa Diabate had somewhat of a breakout season with the Charlotte Hornets this season, earning 47 stats and 26 minutes per game under Charles Lee. He’s another prototypical mobile big man who can give you bits of a lot of things on both ends of the floor.

At $2.4 million for next season — which will be the last of his current contract — he’s a legitimate value swing. Do the Hornets sit down to talk trade when the return is unlikely to be productive and/or impactful? I’d be shocked if they didn’t slam the phone down.

Still, his name belongs on this list because he’s proven he can make an impact in the league and under Lee, would be used to some aspects of the system the Celtics run.

Again, a move for Diabate isn’t something I would consider likely.

Morez Johnson Jr.

So far, we’ve looked at players Boston could trade for - albeit unlikely scenarios. But what if the Celtics looked toward the draft to plug the gap? Morez Johnson Jr. could be that guy.

The issue is, I’ve seen him mocked anywhere from the late lottery to the bottom of the first round. There doesn’t appear to be a consensus regarding where he could go in the draft. If he falls into the 20s, could Brad Stevens move up a couple of spots to draft someone who could genuinely plug a hole in the roster while offering long-term upside on a cost-controlled deal?

“Johnson is one of the best defenders in the country with his ability to battle in the post, switch on the perimeter, and gobble up rebounds,” Tyler Metcalf of wrote in a recent mock draft. “He has the strength to deal with bigs and the agility to handle guards. On top of that, Johnson has one of the highest motors you could ask for.”

It’s worth noting that Morez Johnson Jr. went 8th in that mock.

Obviously, if Johnson Jr. is going to go that high, the Celtics will be out of the running. But if he does fall — which bigs tend to do, especially when their offense is questionable — the Celtics would be wise to explore avenues to bring him to Boston and develop him within the team’s culture and system.

I’d be a huge advocate for that, should it happen.

Right now, these guys would be my choices to fill a mobile big man role. Some are more attainable than others, but they all solve a similar problem. Who would you target to round out the big-man rotation?

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The season is done. The Celtics blew a 3-1 series lead, lost three straight, with two being at home, and got knocked out in the first round by the Sixers.

Adam and Billy break down what went wrong, what needs to change, and whether Brad Stevens can actually find the pieces to make this team a genuine contender heading into next season.

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The Boston Celtics have lost the last two games against the Philadelphia 76ers, being held to under 100 points both times.

The Celtics head into a Game 7 against the 76ers tonight at TD Garden needing to figure something out fast.

Adam and Mike break down the rotation problems that have defined this series, the small-ball lineup that could change everything, and whether Joe Mazzulla will actually pull the trigger on something different before it's too late.

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We can talk about the adjustments Joe Mazzulla will need to make, the changes to players’ shot diet, or the way the big man rotation has been outmatched all series. Each of those talking points is valid and worth exploring.

Yet, the thing that’s stuck out to me the most is how the Philadelphia 76ers have gone from a team riding Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe early in the series to a unit built around Paul George and Joel Embiid over the past two games.

Their whole identity has flipped.

And with it, so has the series.

When it comes to Embiid, there’s some bias among Celtics fans. We’re used to seeing him gas out late in games. We’re used to his influence being marginalized by Al Horford and how well he matches up against the former MVP. Most importantly, we’re used to seeing his sad face as the Celtics send the Sixers packing.

This isn’t that version of Embiid.

Primarily because there’s no one on Boston’s roster capable of putting the clamps down in the way Horford did for years.

Nick Nurse will know this. That’s why I wasn’t shocked to see the Sixers isolate Embiid and Neemias Queta for the opening play of last night’s game.

The play was simple. Let’s break down why.

Philly has Maxey “Iverson Cut” with George popping after setting a screen, as that would tilt the Celtics’ defense to one side of the floor and leave no room for help defense due to one side having an empty corner.

From there, Embiid fronts the post and seals off Neemy. A Gator-style1 pass finds Embiid, and then it’s one-on-one for a quick bucket.

Neemy has endured a hellacious series thus far, littered with foul after foul. That’s not to place blame; it’s just the nature of being tasked with a bad matchup. Unfortunately, when Embiid can smell blood in the water, he becomes the best version of himself.

Not only is the former MVP finding success in terms of scoring, but he’s also operating as the Sixers’ offensive hub — forcing Boston into bad decisions and carving them open as they succumb to his gravity.

In the above clip, the Sixers have Embiid working on the low block. There’s an empty corner on the strong side, which means no defender to dig toward and pressure Embiid’s dribble.

With Tatum handling the threat of George, who has smartly positioned himself in a direct passing lane from Embiid, he’s not in a position to provide any help, either. So, when Kelly Oubre Jr’ cuts from the weakside wing, Jaylen Brown assumes Payton Pritchard is going to split his man, which leads Brown to jump into a double on Embiid.

Oubre Jr winds up cutting unchecked, allowing Embiid to pass over the double team for an uncontested bucket in the paint.

That’s not Celtics basketball.

Where’s the communication? The trust for guys to handle their matchups? The pressure of the live dribble to force tough decisions under pressure?

I get that Nikola Vucevic comes with his set of defensive limitations, but surely he should be trusted to bang down low with Embiid and provide enough resistance. Vucevic’s biggest defensive flaws come when guarding in space or dealing with downhill threats.

The need to send a double at the moment isn’t totally clear to me.

I wish I could say that was a one-time occurrence, too.

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The Boston Celtics had this series in the bag at 3-1 — now we're going to Game 7.
Adam and Billy break down the Celtics vs 76ers Game 6 collapse: Paul George going off, Embiid controlling the paint, Jaylen Brown's struggles, Joe Mazzulla's adjustments, and whether Boston can close it out at TD Garden on Saturday.

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:09 Paul George Takes Over
04:57 Celtics Counters and Rotations
05:53 From 3-1 to 3-3
11:38 Rim Protection and Rebounding
14:42 Nurse vs Mazzulla Chess Match
19:02 Sixers have the blueprint
22:42 Game 7
23:49 Final Thoughts

When it comes to the playoffs, the answer is resounding yes.

How many times in recent memory have the Celtics headed back home, in control of a series, only to let go of the rope?

The numbers back this up.

If we look at all playoff games at home since Ime Udoka’s lone season with the franchise, we immediately start to get a clear picture. In 43 postseason home games, the Celtics have won 25, lost 18.

That’s a 58.1% win rate.

At first glance, you probably wouldn’t pin a team with such varied success on its home court as a genuine contender.

The thing is, that’s exactly what the Celtics have been throughout the entire stretch. Even this season, much to our surprise, they still rank among legitimate candidates to come out of the Eastern Conference.

If we broaden the search criteria to include every team in the league that has played over 20 postseason games on its home court from the 2022 playoffs to now, we get a shortlist of seven franchises.

Boston sits sixth.

Moments in time can skew these numbers. I mean, 11 of the Warriors’ 17 home wins came in 2022, when they last won a championship. Remove that run, and they’ve won six home games in 12 tries.

Boston has won a championship in that span, with its best home record in recent years, winning 9 of its 11 home games en route to the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Oklahoma did the same thing the following year, banking 11 of its 16 home wins over the past five years in a single run.

Let’s face it, all seven teams on this shortlist are there because they’ve been successful. That’s the point in filtering for a minimum of 20 postseason games on their respective home floors.

The problem is, even when factoring in championship runs, the Celtics still aren’t getting things done at home at the same rate as some of their contending counterparts.

The volume matters here, too. Boston's 43 games make it the most battle-tested number on this list. OKC’s .800 looks dominant, but it's built on 20 games. If they have a bad series or two, that number looks very different.

However, the Celtics have had enough chances, across enough series, that the sample is no longer small enough to explain away.

We’ve seen enough to know that this is who they’ve become as a team.

There’s something holding them back at home.

Interestingly, things aren’t the same on the road.

The Celtics have won 17 of their 24 road games since 2022, giving them a win rate of 70.8%. That’s a wild leap in productivity and success compared to playing on their home floor.

I’m sure we all have our own theories on what’s behind Boston’s issues with winning at home.

What I am going to say is that the current roster needs to be able to get things done with its own crowd behind it. Sure, this year’s Celtics are scrappier, younger and more athletic, but they don’t have the same depth of experience and a six-man rotation of borderline All-Stars to fall back on.

Role players are supposed to come alive on the home floor. Boston’s roster is so good this year because the role players have all developed their games and stepped into sizeable spots within the rotation.

You need that production.

Bluntly put, Boston had a wider margin of error in recent years. Now, they don’t.

If they keep dropping games at home, a trip to the NBA Finals will be nothing more than a fever dream.

Fortunately, the Celtics will be on the road when they look to close out their opening round series against the Philadelphia 76ers later today. That means, if we’re going by the numbers, there’s a 70% chance they wrap things up and book their spot in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Boston had the chance to close things out on Tuesday, taking a 3-1 lead back home. Now, the allure of shutting the Sixers down in Philadelphia will likely be enough motivation to get things done.

Assuming they take care of business tonight, the Celtics will need to look inward ahead of the second round, where the New York Knicks will likely meet them.

After all, in their past two playoff series — going back to the 2025 Eastern Conference Semifinals — the Celtics are 2-4 at home. Dropping these games can’t continue. Not when a championship is the ultimate end goal.

I’m all for the road dogs mentality, but only when it’s backed up by a fortress-style record at the TD Garden.

Home records are what you build a foundation on. Only then does the road record become a fearsome number.

For all of the schematic questions we might have about the Celtics, their inability to win at home has to be the primary fix. I’m just not sure how you get there, because it’s clearly not a coaching, talent, or system problem.

It’s something else.

The question is what?

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If the Sixers aren’t getting as many live-ball rebounds, then they aren’t firing as many outlet passes. Fewer outlet passes means fewer transition opportunities for Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.

Fewer opportunities for the Sixers in transition means more half-court offense.

Boston excels when guarding in the half-court.

Ironically, things got worse for Philly when they added Joel Embiid back to the rotation. Adding the former MVP into the mix was supposed to supercharge the Sixers, making them a bigger threat.

Instead, Boston faces the lord of the unathletic. Embiid may as well have bellowed You. Shall. Not. Sprint. To his younger teammates. Because when Embiid is on the floor, his team’s offense flows through him.

For the Celtics, this was welcomed news. Granted, Embiid draws attention. He generates foul calls. He opens things up with his sheer presence on the floor.

What he doesn’t do, though, is play a style that’s conducive to transition-based basketball, and when you take away the open court, you lose a lot of the edge Maxey and Edgecombe bring to the table.

The Celtics will take that.

They’ll take Neemias Queta getting into foul trouble, as he has done throughout the series.

They’ll take Embiid initiating play via dribble hand-offs 10 seconds into the shot clock.

And they’ll take a more Paul George-heavy offense, at least this version of George.

If all of that means there will be less downhill play from Philly’s young guards, then Boston will welcome Embiid’s return with open arms.

Let’s be blunt. Embiid hasn’t scared me, worried me, or even concerned me in at least three years. George hasn’t been the player who won an All-Star selection in his last year with the LA Clippers since arriving in Philadelphia. Nick Nurse doesn’t have the deepest depth chart.

The Celtics are winning on almost every front. Jayson Tatum is playing inspired basketball. Jaylen Brown has been captain awesome all season. Baylor Scheierman, Luka Garza and Jordan Walsh have been reliable depth pieces off the bench.

Oh, and Payton Pritchard is him. You heard me, HIM.

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The only area the Sixers have consistently found success is when they’re running the floor. If the Celtics don’t have time to get set, the Sixers have enough talent to punish them.

However, when you move Adem Bona and Andre Drummond to secondary and tertiary roles and begin playing through the five, that downhill game evaporates.

The numbers back this up, too. Here’s what Cleaning The Glass tells us about Philly’s transition offense this series (working in extrapolated points per 100)

In game 1, the Sixers were a +7.3

In game 2, the Sixers were a +3.1

In game 3, the Sixers were a +4.7

In game 4, the Sixers were a -1

Look at that swing.

The Sixers went from being a highly productive transition offense over the first three games to a below-average one on Sunday. The only thing that changed was the addition of Embiid.

Now, the Celtics will head into game five, in complete control of their opening round series, knowing that if Philly doesn’t figure out how to unleash Maxey and Edgecombe, they will be preparing for some additional rest before the second round.

Joe Mazzulla will be more than aware of the risk the Sixers pose. They’re fighting for their playoff lives.

However, if Nick Nurse can’t integrate Embiid in a way that fits what the team does best, the Sixers will be playing with one arm tied behind their back.

Times have changed. Maxey and Edgecombe need to run that show now.

However, even if the Sixers have figured that out, their current roster construction isn’t going to unlock the guard duo.

I called the Celtics in five before the series started. We’re at game five. My stance hasn’t changed.

Keep them bogged down in the halfcourt, allow them to run the offense through Embiid, dominate the boards, and set up a showdown with either the New York Knicks or Atlanta Hawks.

That’s the plan.

That’s the hope.

Who would have thought adding a former MVP back into the rotation could have spun things this far south?

Hopefully, that nose-dive lasts one game longer.

Last night, that same character trait gave them the tools they needed to go up 2-1 in their opening round series against the Philadelphia 76ers.

To paraphrase Elizabeth Barrett Browning’s Sonnet 43, How resilient is thee? Let me count the ways.

1. The Bounce Back

Game two was a tough loss. You only have to look toward the New York Knicks to see what going 1-2 down against a team you were expected to run through can do to a fanbase. No way did the Celtics want to deal with that.

Who would?

This was the first game to really feel like a playoff contest. Scrappy. Physical. Compact.

Boston was playing in Philadelphia, with a crowd full of fans daydreaming about sending you back to your hotel with a losing record in the series.

Tyrese Maxey got wherever he wanted on the court. Credit to Philly, they kept things close all game. Furthermore, every time it felt like the Celtics were going to pull ahead, Philly went on a run to tie things back up or take a slender lead.

That has to carry a certain level of demoralization throughout the roster.

Nevertheless, the Celtics keep chipping away. They didn’t allow themselves to get baited into playing outside of their system — as they did during game two when they started chasing homerun threes.

They didn’t get sped up when the fouls came quickly — both at the start of the game — and during some rough patches throughout.

And, they didn’t shy away from going back into their playbook when set actions failed to generate points on the board.

Boston stayed the course.

It battled.

It hustled.

Then, with the game winding down, the Celtics came up with some big moments, pulling away in the clutch, silencing the crowd and ensuring their trip back to the hotel would be a celebratory one.

2. Derrick White Comes Up Big

Derrick White has struggled since the start of the postseason. Unfortunately, last night’s game was no different. From the outside looking in, it appears that he’s having somewhat of a crisis of confidence.

Yet, in the final four minutes of the game, with the Celtics looking to build some separation, White came alive, snagging two key offensive rebounds.

The first board came with just over 4 minutes left on the clock. The Celtics had a two-point lead over Philly. Brown had driven the ball into the paint before spraying it out to Nikola Vucevic.

Miss.

Here comes White, tipping the ball back out to the perimeter, where it finds Jayson Tatum.

Brown ultimately gets the ball back and finishes off the play. Boston goes four points up.

The second key rebound came in an eerily similar fashion. Boston up by three. Clock ticking down. Tatum drives, kicks, Vooch misses, White gets the rebound and kicks it back out.

Tatum for 3.

Boston up by 6 points in the dying moments of the game.

What. A. Play.

Even with his overall impact being questioned, White found a way to remind everyone why he’s so important to the Celtics.

“I mean, anybody who ever doubts D-white, they don’t really care about winning,” Mazzulla said during his postgame news conference. “There’s a competitive confidence there. There’s a character piece there. He’s not defined just by shot-making. Did a tremendous job heading into game one. He defended like 54. pick and rolls, which is the most on the team, and he has to be able to do that for us to win. Those two rebounds were big-time rebounds, and he can impact winning in so many different ways. So, I’m always gonna double down on his competitive character, who he is.”

White’s competitive character is what helped him find the gear that led to those two rebounds. Does that mean his offensive struggles are going to be overlooked? I doubt it.

Those two rebounds are akin to getting an A in film studies while flunking Maths and Science. It’s a nice palette cleanser, but there’s still some work to be done.

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Yesterday, I read ’s piece titled “Anatomy of a Collapse.” It was his final look at the New York Knicks’ game two loss at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, April 20.

The opening paragraph struck me. Allow me to share it with you.

“Good morning. I hope everyone got over that game by now. I didn’t. As of 8:30 last night, when I put the finishing touches on the newsletter you’re about to read, I was still pissed off. Maybe more pissed than I was after the game. I get that we’re supposed to be thankful the team is good, and I am, because playoff basketball - even with heartbreaking losses - is better than counting days until the lottery. But there’s something about giving away a game in the way they gave this one away that incites a very particular set of negative emotions.”

This led me to question my own reaction to Boston’s loss just a few hours prior to my opening Macri’s musing.

See, I wasn’t pissed off. Not even a little bit.

Should I have been?

Does that mean I don’t care as much as I should?

Am I working too hard to dissociate with each individual result in the hope of being ‘more professional’?

Yeah… probably a little.

Not because I don’t care.

Not because I’m not invested in a team I proclaim to love.

And not because I’m trying to ‘play the part’ of a professional (although, allowing myself to be more “me” in my writing is my next personal development goal for this newsletter).

I wasn’t pissed because we’ve been here before. Quite a lot, actually.

It’s been over a decade since the Boston Celtics last missed the playoffs — back when Brad Stevens had just arrived, and the franchise was adjusting to life after Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

Since then, we’ve cheered this team on six runs to the Eastern Conference Finals and two trips to the NBA Finals. We’ve been rewarded with a championship along the way, too.

None of those postseason adventures went undefeated. Interestingly, of the last 12 trips to the playoffs, the Celtics have only swept their opening round opponent three times (Indiana in 2019, Philly in 2020, and Brooklyn in 2022).

In the seasons since Boston swept the Brooklyn Nets, the Celtics have lost at least once in the first round.

22-23: Lost twice to the Atlanta Hawks, winning the series 4-3

23-24: Lost once to the Miami Heat, winning the series 4-1

24-25: Lost once to the Orlando Magic, winning the series 4-1

25-26: Lost once (so far) to the Philadelphia 76ers, we will see how things go.

Losses rarely grind my gears. Perhaps it’s my willingness to fail in my own life. You can never learn and build something successful if you shy away due to the fear of failure. I tend to view sports the same way.

However, there are exceptions to the rule.

Remember the 2021-22 season, where for a stretch of the regular season, the Celtics continually collapsed late in games?

Yeah, those left me pissed.

I remember being absolutely furious when the Celtics entered the fourth quarter of their Nov. 1, 2021, game against the Chicago Bulls with a 103 - 89 lead over the Chicago Bulls, only to fall asleep at the wheel and lose 128-114.

I mean, 39 fourth-quarter points is enough to leave anyone bubbling with rage…right?

The Christmas Day loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in that same season was even worse.

Those are the types of losses where you’ll see me share in your disappointment, anger or frustration.

But a loss against a team that came out playing markedly better than game one, where their coach won the first battle on the chessboard?

Sure, it stings.

It doesn’t leave me annoyed, though.

Ok, if it were a game five, or even a game six, I’d be singing a different tune.

Context matters.

And that brings me back to Macri’s opening.

The Knicks did fall apart down the stretch, blowing a game, and unlike the Celtics, the fanbase hasn’t enjoyed much postseason basketball in recent years.

I mean, in the last 12 years, New York has appeared in five postseasons (including this one). Before this season, they’ve gotten out of the first round three times, only making it to a conference finals once.

In the seven years prior to their first-round loss against Atlanta in 2021, New York fans had been counting down to the draft lottery for seven straight years.

Each loss is going to sting a little more because the work it took to get the team to where it is now was grueling.

Still, that doesn’t mean I don’t understand when I venture onto Twitter, Instagram, Reddit or YouTube and see Celtics fans venting their frustration at their favorite team dropping yet another first-round game.

I get it. I do.

Sometimes, though, it can go a little too far.

I’ve already seen people anointing Derrick White as an offseason trade candidate because his season has been below the level we’d expect. Yet, the context of his role this year is being overlooked.

I am, however, beginning to warm to the idea that Hauser may be better served coming off the bench for the rest of this series — but that’s an argument for another day.

As I sat there, reading through Macri’s piece, while looking at it through a Celtics lens as the Celticsverse burned on social media around me, I did wonder whether the same abundance of success that has me taking a more measured approach is also what leads to the live-by-the-game, die-by-the-game mentality we see from other segments of the fanbase.

Are the Celtics a victim of their own success?

Probably. We’ve all become so used to seeing them win and do so at a high level that the off-nights hit harder. They’re a Mike Tyson punch out of the blue.

When you get hit, you get angry or you disassociate. Fight or flight.

Everybody is different.

The same can be said of how we follow our favorite sports teams. Just like we all deal with success and failure in our own lives in unique and sometimes peculiar ways.

Take me, for instance. I’ve written before about how, in recent years, I gained a ton of weight, and am working it all back off. Well, this morning, I weighed myself (as I do every day to track average loss over time) and had reached my latest milestone.

Allow me a Britishism here, I was chuffed.

Yet, to celebrate, I sat down, got a pen and paper, and wrote out my next milestone along with the timeframe I hope to reach it in.

That was it.

That was my celebration.

What I’m getting at is it’s ok to be annoyed by Boston’s loss on Tuesday. It’s ok to be pissed that they stuck with a defensive system and offensive approach that clearly wasn’t working.

However, from where I’m sitting, losing that way — while far from ideal — is nowhere near as bad as mentally checking out. That’s when I start to worry.

Those signs aren’t there.

As Celtics fans, we’ve been here enough times to have confidence that Mazzulla and his staff will figure this out. And we’ve seen enough first-round losses to know that one game isn’t going to swing the pendulum — not with this team — not with this head coach.

However, if they lose game three, we might need a different conversation.

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One thing the Sixers have done well this season is bait opponents into high-volume three-point shooting. They’re comfortable giving those looks up.

We looked at this when I wrote the potential series preview last week.

“One thing Nurse’s team does well is bait teams into taking a high volume of threes per game. That’s why they rank 20th in the NBA for defensive three-point frequency. They’re fine with letting you get your shots up because they know they can impact them at a good-enough rate for it to be an effective strategy.”

Last night, the Celtics leaned into the exact shot profile Philly wanted, and never meaningfully adjusted as the game wore on.

Nevertheless, when speaking with the media after the game, Mazzulla quantified the discussion points surrounding Boston’s poor shooting as the “low-hanging fruit.”

I tend to agree.

The fact is that Boston fell into the Sixers trap.

The problem is that a poor shooting night was compounded by the Celtics getting caught in their own tactical adjustments. Their switch to a deep drop coverage backfired, and the follow-up counters didn’t solve it in real time.

This clip was arguably the first sign of things to come. The fact that VJ Edgecombe essentially walked into a mid-range shot with limited resistance is wild to me.

Credit to Adem Bona. His screen took Sam Hauser out of the action. Neemias Queta was in drop, playing just off the level of the screen, while Derrick White was in position to help at the nail.

With Hauser unable to fight through, Edgecombe gets downhill, putting Neemy under pressure to contain the drive. Ideally, White applies pressure as Edgecombe reaches the elbow — a dig, a swipe, even a good ol’ quick blitz.

Instead, he kind of just…stands there. He’s a passenger on the play.

In a sense, this is what I imagine Nate Duncan was getting at. Drop coverage — especially when it’s deep — is exploitable, particularly in the postseason.

The best way to make it more effective is to run a “cover system” higher on the floor. Think of game 1, and how Boston had two guys pinching on penetration. Neemy was still dropping on those plays; he just had a defensive safety blanket in front of him.

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If there’s one defensive coverage the Boston Celtics have consistently decapitated in recent months, it’s the hedge off a pick-and-roll.

This newsletter has covered it twice in recent memory.

Here’s a breakdown of how the Celtics used Neemias Queta to punish a similar coverage against the Atlanta Hawks in January.

Just a few days later, the Indiana Pacers tried multiple coverages, ultimately leaning into the hedge. The Celtics dismantled their defense play after play after play.

So, when the Sixers leaned into hedging in game one of their first-round playoff series against the Celtics, there was always a chance things would go wrong.

And go wrong it did.

For the majority of Sunday’s game, Nick Nurse had his bigs — Andre Drummond and Adem Bona — operating at the level of the screen. Once a pick-and-roll took place, the Sixers often looked to send two to the ball, hedging to pressure the ball-handler, take away the shot and contain a potential drive.

Sometimes, that strategy worked.

If you watch the above play, you will see the Celtics lean on a “Ram” action1 in search of creating a favorable mismatch for Jayson Tatum. Judging by how the defense is set up, the plan is likely to create a switch onto Drummond, who begins the possession matched up with Luka Garza.

After coming off Payton Pritchard’s screen, Garza flows into the PnR with Tatum. However, the Sixers opt against switching the action, instead hedging out onto Tatum, forcing him to backtrack. Drummond then recovers out to Garza, and the action has failed to produce an advantage.

The problem for Philly is possessions like the one above were the exceptions, not the rule.

Check out this play.

Philly runs the same defensive coverage. In fact, both Paul George and Drummond are defending the play — just like the other clip we looked at.

The setup is the same. Tatum is high on the wing. Boston flows into a PnR, with Queta operating as the screener. As both of the Sixers defenders hedge onto Tatum, Queta rolls hard to the rim, calling for the ball as he creates a passing angle for Tatum.

The result is a monster jam from Queta. I mean rim-rocking, poster-level jam.

When the Celtics are running spread pick-and-rolls, or angle pick-and-rolls (or both, like in the clip above), opposing defenses are in a bind. There’s too much shooting around the perimeter to help off your man. Still, that’s what you have to do.

Look at where everyone is as Queta goes up for the dunk.

Jaylen Brown has cut out of the corner and is now in the dunker spot, which is why Kelly Oubre Jr. was able to contest Queta’s dunk so quickly. With Brown in the dunker, Queta has a release valve should Oubre impact his shot enough that the breakout big man loses confidence in it.

Sam Hauser is lifting onto the weakside wing, and Derrick White has sunk to replace Brown in the corner.

Spacing everywhere. As such, Queta’s movement toward the rim is left unimpeded for the most part.

Easy bucket.

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• 28th for accuracy at the rim

• 26th for accuracy in the short mid-range — think floater and push shot regions

• 9th for accuracy in long mid-range — free-throw line extended out to the three-point line

• 21st for accuracy on corner threes

• 22nd for accuracy on non-corner threes

• 23rd for threes overall

Put bluntly, the Sixers don’t really do anything well offensively.

Couple those offensive shortcomings with a matchup against a Boston Celtics team that thrives on defense, and Nick Nurse was working through a cookbook with none of the necessary ingredients.

The result was a sub-100 point loss to the Celtics in the opening game of the playoffs.

As Celtics fans, this was a welcome start to the postseason. Based on what we saw yesterday afternoon, this series is nothing more than a string of tune-up games ahead of tougher tests to come.

“This one, you know, it sucks; we didn’t expect this at all, but we just have to play better,” Tyrese Maxey said during his postgame news conference. '“You know, Paul (Paul George) said something that kind of registered in my mind, like they didn’t feel like it was a playoff game. We did, but they didn’t. You know what I’m saying? They just did us easy. I feel like it was an easy game, and that’s not okay, like we got to make them more uncomfortable.”

That’s how badly the Celtics whooped Philly yesterday.

Even their own veterans noted the ease with which Boston operated.

A large part of that was their ability to shut down offensive possessions with staggering consistency.

More importantly, the Celtics forced Philly to play their brand of basketball. Nurse’s team went 4-of-23 from deep. And while the work Boston did guarding the perimeter is a story in itself, the bigger success was limiting the Sixers to just 27% of their offense from deep — an 8.6% drop from their regular-season average.

The problem that Philly ran into was that without hitting their threes, Boston’s defense had no reason to adjust its defensive coverage. Neemias Queta, Nikola Vucevic and Luka Garza all took turns in drop coverage. Occasionally, they would move up to the level of the screen — but given the threat Philly poses when getting downhill, drop defense seemed like the better bet.

Unfortunately for the Sixers, their high rim frequency disappeared in this game, and their finishing around the cup was abysmal. Boston, once again, deserves credit for the work it did in taking away the restricted area and the easy buckets that often come with it.

Boston’s defense has left the Sixers with a sizeable puzzle to try and solve.

“We’re a team, so we can get each other driving, kicking, finding open shots,” Kelly Oubre Jr. said of how the Sixers need to adjust in game 2, during his postgame news conference. “Hit flow, get them off the ball a little bit. Maybe shift the defense and just find a wide-open, easy look right? So I think that’s a start.”

There's no better sign that you totally rocked a team than when two of the veteran guys on the roster are discussing adjustments and harsh realities just minutes after a game.

While the Sixers were struggling to find any form of success on offense, the Celtics were finding their rhythm, while also building toward shifting gears, which may not be necessary until the second round, judging by what we saw yesterday.

One key aspect I liked was seeing Vucevic working in the short-roll. He had a couple of nice moments when receiving a pass up high before kicking it out. Ok, I get that those moments are fleeting, but the shot quality those moments can generate is key to a functional offense, especially against playoff-level half-court defenses.

Short roll creation has been an underutilized area this season, following the departures of Luke Kornet and Al Horford.

Just look at this play for an example.

Here’s another play where Vucevic offered some short-roll creation.

Ideally, the Celtics can find a few extra possessions per game to lean into some short-roll creation. That doesn’t necessarily mean they lean in Vucevic. I’d like to see some more inverted PnR as the series goes on — that was a key variable Joe Mazzulla leaned on during 2024, and with the limitations on Philly’s big men, it could be something to explore in search of additional ways to generate advantages.

Still, let’s credit Vucevic for his unselfishness when running these short-roll actions.

“We’re not asking him to score, we’re asking him to play basketball,” Mazzulla said in his postgame news conference.

Of course, we can’t avoid mentioning the impact that Jayson Tatum had on this game. He was arguably the Celtics' best performer on the night — honorable mention for Jaylen Brown, too; his burst and success on drives were key.

Nevertheless, Tatum’s scoring, passing, rebounding and overall gravity were key factors in how the Celtics set things up on both sides of the floor. It’s wild to think we’re a month and change removed from his first game back, and now, he’s already operating at a near All-NBA level. The scary part is, he’s only just getting out of second gear!

“I’m still rehabbing. I’m still returning,” Tatum told the media after the game. “I mean, I’ve returned to play obviously, but, you know, I still attack rehab every single day, except for when we have off days. So obviously, that’s the main difference. And still just trying to ramp up, I got to play 16 games. So for me, it’s all about conditioning and you know, obviously it’s still attacking rehab every single day to feel better and feel stronger and more confident, things I just didn’t have to focus on in the past.”

If this is Tatum still finding his feet, the entire NBA is in serious trouble...

Looking ahead, game two is on Tuesday, April 21. Once again, the Sixers will visit the TD Garden. Boston will undoubtedly look to seize control of this series with a second straight win. If the defense can hold strong and continue limiting Philly to under 100 points, a second win should be in the bag, and a sweep isn't out of the question.

I’m sticking with my Celtics in 5 prediction, though. Philly is good enough to steal one game if Maxey, VJ Edgecombe or George go off.

Tip-off will be shortly after 6 pm over here in the UK. Just after 1 pm for those of you lucky enough to reside in or around the Boston area. Even earlier, if you’re living out West, you're likely soaking up the sun every day.

Earlier this week, we looked at the potential threat Philly could pose, along with areas the Boston Celtics could look to exploit. That piece was stat-heavy. Predominantly because those numbers told the story far better than my limited Sixers consumption ever could have.

Now that we know what the numbers are telling us, the natural next step is to start exploring each team’s potential X-Factors heading into the series.

Before we do that, though, I wanted to plug yesterday’s podcast where Billy Calabrese and I worked through both teams’ rotations to see where the Celtics positional advantages lie.

To keep things nice and simple, I’m going to work through five potential X Factors. This isn’t an exhaustive list. Both teams will have plenty of wrinkles and schemes to throw at each other as the series plays out.

However short-lived it might be.

X Factor 1: Luka Garza Might Be Ready

I’m at the point where I wonder whether Luka Garza is a better fit for the Celtics bench unit than Nikola Vucevic. Garza has more experience with the current roster and has earned an opportunity to shine in the postseason.

Furthermore, Vucevic hasn’t looked great since being acquired at the Feb. 5 trade deadline. Ok, part of that was due to a 14-game absence due to a finger injury, yet the other part is that Vucevic is shooting 34% from deep in a Celtics jersey.

Against the Sixers, who will predominantly be playing a drop defensive scheme, Boston can really take advantage of their five-out spacing. If Vucevic struggles to see his perimeter looks drop, and isn’t providing much as a creation hub or screener, Joe Mazzulla could turn to Garza.

Not only is Garza shooting the rock at a 43.3% clip this season, but he’s also emerged as an elite screener and offensive rebounder. Considering the Sixers’ struggles on the defensive glass, a big man rotation of Neemias Queta and Garza could put serious pressure on the Sixers while also allowing the Celtics to dominate the tempo and flow of the game.

Garza won’t have the experience that Vucevic brings, but his hard-nosed style of play and flurry of scoring moves could give Andre Drummond and Adem Bona fits. I could legitimately see him being a difference maker, especially when it comes to creating separation for shooters in the PnR and on pin-downs or flares.

X Factor 2: What Version of Paul George Will We Get?

The version of Paul George we see during this series could indicate whether the Sixers can hang around beyond five games or not. When the Sixers moved to acquire George during the summer of 2024, they were doing so on the back of a stellar year from the veteran forward.

Unfortunately, PG hasn’t been able to replicate that success in Philly. In fact, in two seasons, he’s only suited up for 78 games — just 4 more than his final year with the LA Clippers.

Here is where I would usually write “at his best" and then go on to list the undoubted talent PG has, and where his skills can make the most impact. However, after seven seasons of limited playing time — with the exception of his standout 2023-24 season when he was heading into free agency (weird, right?) — we’ve seldom seen George at his best.

Honestly, it’s hard to project what “his best” would actually look like now.

Still, if PG’s current best is even 80% of his prime, he is still talented enough to make this a legitimate series. He might not be as quick as he once was, but he still has all (well, most) of the tools to be an elite wing defender. His shooting stroke hasn’t gone anywhere, either.

If George is locked in, the Celtics will have a legitimate three-headed monster to deal with once you factor in Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. If he’s not, then he will be nothing more than a high-level rotation player taking home max-level money.

Ideally, we see George roll back the years and remind everyone why he was such a feared talent during his prime. It’s better for us, it’s better for the Celtics, and it’s most certainly better for the Sixers. After all, the bigger test Philly can pose Boston now, the more prepared they’ll be when they face the New York Knicks in the second round.

Side Note: There is also the subplot of having a Tatum vs. Paul George series. Tatum historically ups his game when facing off against George, and given his current shooting struggles, this series could be what ignites a spark within him to find some consistency. If that happens, WATCH OUT.

X Factor 3: Rookie on Rookie Crime

I’m not expecting Hugo Gonzalez to get loads of playing time during the postseason. When writing out my eight-man rotation, I’ve got him on the outside looking in…

Guards: Derrick White, Payton Pritchard

Wings: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Baylor Scheierman, Sam Hauser

Bigs: Neemias Queta, Nikola Vucevic

I’ve got Garza and Hugo as joint ninth in the rotation, meaning either could be elevated into playing time depending on the current situation. Maybe, on the rare occasion, both will be called upon — and we’re not talking about garbage time, either.

Yet, Hugo’s size, defensive instincts and speed feel like they could have a legitimate role to play in this series. Especially if Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Maxey are finding ways to penetrate at will.

Hugo’s defensive attributes could be key to slowing down the Sixers; he’s versatile enough to guard down, big enough to be physically imposing and would probably take some form of joy in hounding down Philly’s biggest scoring threats, whether it be via a rotation, switch, straight matchup or even in the rearview.

In Hugo, the Celtics have a relentless defender with a high motor and plenty of long-term upside. I’m not saying he could completely lock down Philly’s guard trio, but he could certainly fluster them for stretches if given the opportunity.

It’s also worth noting that Hugo has spent 49.8% of his defensive minutes being matched up with guards this season (22.9% on point guards and 26.9% on shooting guards). Therefore, he’s already used to the trials that come with trying to slow down NBA-level ball-handlers and off-ball threats.

I wouldn’t expect Hugo to get the assignment straight away — although I wouldn’t be shocked if he did — but, if Philly’s guard rotation gets hot, or is finding consistent success, Hugo should be a consideration.

X Factor 4: The Top Two

Ok, this one’s a given, but I’d be remiss to exclude them. The Celtics are going to go as far as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can take them.

Not individually, as some sections of the media would have you believe.

Together.

Spin things any way you want, the fact is that Boston will be walking into Sunday’s game with the two best players in the series.

When you have the two clear-cut best talents on the same roster, with another player in the overall top five of the matchup pool (why hello, Derrick White), then you’re positioned perfectly for success.

The Sixers will not only have to figure out ways to shut the star duo down, but they’ll also have to navigate the spacing their presence creates and the gravity that it puts on the defense. If Philly can’t deal with the gaps Boston’s roster will naturally generate, they’re going to have a hard time defending as a team, and that’s a tough reality to face heading into game one.

X Factor 5: The Coaching Battle

Is Nick Nurse a better coach than Mike Brown? Quin Snyder? J.B. Bickerstaff? Kenny Atkinson? Jamahl Mosley?

I’d argue yes. He’s a championship-winning coach with decades of experience around the world — including my hometown of Birmingham, UK — where he led the now-defunct Birmingham Bullets back in the 90s (1995-1997), winning a chip in 1996.

So, operating under that assumption, Joe Mazzulla will face arguably his toughest coaching battle of any playoff series outside an NBA Finals run in this opening series.

Nurse is creative. He’s willing to adjust. And he won’t shy away from trying things to see what works.

Fortunately for the Celtics, Mazzulla has proven himself to be one of the better, more innovative coaches in the NBA. He’s improved his in-game adjustments and has been a solid game-to-game adjustment maker since stepping into the lead role.

Still, the playoffs are where coaching decisions can have genuine ramifications — for the better or worse.

Any dilly-dallying on Mazzulla’s part will undoubtedly have a knock-on effect.

From defensive coverages, offensive adjustments, matchups, substitution patterns, and everything in between, Nurse and Mazzulla will be locked in a free-flowing chess battle. I’m expecting Mazzulla to come out on top, but the sideline duel will be one of the more fascinating subplots to this series, at least from where I’m sitting.

Now, it’s your turn. Let me know what or who you consider to be some of the potential X Factors heading into this opening round series! One honorable mention for me would be the Grimes vs. Pritchard battle of the Sixth Men. I think that will be a great matchup when/if those two are on the court together.

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Then, later tonight, we will get our answer on who the Celtics will be facing in the first round, and we can start peeling some layers off.

Unlike the Sixers, the Celtics don’t have a huge history with the Magic during the Jaylen Brown & Jayson Tatum era. In fact, last season’s first-round matchup was the first time the modern-day Celtics had faced off against Orlando in a postseason setting.

As a quick reminder, the Celtics won that series 4-1.

Magic’s Potential Playoff Rotation

Franz Wagner’s fitness will be a major factor in the Magic’s ability to make an impact in the postseason, assuming they can overcome the Sixers. Wagner has had a difficult season, following a high ankle sprain that led to two false starts when trying to return to the rotation throughout the regular season.

In total, Wagner has played in 34 games this season. As we saw during Boston’s final game of the season, Wagner is still struggling, especially in terms of conditioning.

“I’m trying to push through. Get as much time out there as I can. I feel all right,” Wagner said after losing to the Celtics on Sunday. “It’s frustrating [not playing his full minutes]. But there’s only one way to get past that, and that’s to push through it. I want to do it the smart way. But to go to that point the smart way, that’s all I can do.”

Orlando will need Wagner if they’re going to stand any chance against the Celtics, especially with the way Paolo Banchero has been playing this year.

With Wagner’s minutes and potential availability in the air, he will be the biggest X Factor for the Magic, both tonight vs. Philly and moving forward should his team win.

Here’s a guess at how the Magic’s playoff rotation could look.

Guard: Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black

Wings: Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane and Tristan Da Silva

Bigs: Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze

That would give Jamahl Mosley a well-balanced 8-man rotation. He would then have rookies Jase Richardson and Noah Penda to provide youth and skill on the wings, while Jett Howard could certainly use the developmental boost postseason basketball can offer.

Magic’s Biggest Strengths

Protecting the three-point line

One thing Orlando does well is protect the perimeter. They rank fourth in opponent three-point frequency from three-point range this season, while also holding them to 35.7% shooting — 12th in the NBA.

When facing the Celtics, one of the best assets a team can have is the ability to run shooters off the line. Orlando doesn’t bait you into shots, nor does it live with mediocre looks. Instead, Mosley has them trying to shut everything down, or at least make life as difficult as possible when trying to get shots off.

It’s worth noting that Orlando thrived in this exact same area last season. And while the Celtics walked away with a 4-1 series win, nothing came easy. In fact, as each game of that series went by, the Celtics’ three-point attempts gradually went down, with the exception of a minor spike in game three.

Note that the percentages in the above image are frequency, not efficiency.

If the Magic can do that again, Boston will need to lean on its interior scoring, both at the rim and in the mid-rage as a way of countering what the Magic throw at them in terms of three-point defense.

Fortunately, the Celtics have been a solid offensive unit when cooking in the mid-range this season, and they have enough athleticism, size and talent to pressure the rim at will.

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A potential playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Which is nothing new for the Boston Celtics.

In fact, since the 2017-18 season — Tatum’s rookie year — the Celtics and Sixers have met in 16 postseason games.

Boston is 12-4 in those games.

First, the Celtics dispatched the duo of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in a gentleman’s sweep back in the 2018 Eastern Conference Semis, winning games 1,2,3 and 5. Fun fact, JJ Redick was a starter for Philly back then. Another fun fact: this was the same series as the confetti game.

Then Philly took a beating in the first round of the 2020 playoffs, losing four straight, with a series-high 106 points in game four.

Most recently, Boston and Philly dueled it out in the 2023 Eastern Conference semifinals. In fairness, the series went to 7 games, with Philly taking 3 wins — 66% of their entire postseason win total against Boston over the last damn near decade. Of course, the Celtics handled their business in game seven, holding Philly to 88 points in a do-or-die game.

Now, the Sixers face the Orlando Magic on Wednesday, in the hope of securing a win and booking a spot against Boston in the first round of the playoffs.

As a big fan of Cobra Kai and the Karate Kid franchise in general, I have only one thing to say…

Sixers Potential Playoff Rotation

Philly suffered a hammer blow before we even got to the playoffs. Joel Embiid could miss the entire first round after undergoing an appendectomy.

“It is a tough blow,” Sixers head coach Nurse said.

However, it’s not like the Sixers aren’t used to playing without their oft-injured former MVP. I mean, he’s only played in 38 games this season.

“They’ve played different stretches of the year without him,” Nurse said. “As far as what we do personnel-wise, we’ve got (Adem) Bona, we've got (Andre) Drummond, and we’ll use them both.”

Outside of Embiid, Philly should have the rest of their primary rotation available. Assuming Nurse sticks to an 8-man rotation, if they make it into the first round, it could look like this.

Guard: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes

Wing: Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jabari Walker, Justin Edwards

Big: Adem Bona, Andre Drummond

Dominick Barlow has also been a key member of the rotation. He could push Edwards or Walker for the spot, Nurse could rotate the three depending on matchups/matchup success, or he could go nine deep.

Sixers Biggest Strengths

I’ll be honest, looking at both the offensive and defensive numbers, the Sixers don’t have too many major strengths. They struggle scoring across all three levels and have problems generating reliable offense for decent stretches.

Downhill Pressure

One thing the Sixers do well is get downhill. With Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe operating as the starting backcourt, Nick Nurse has two high-level ball-handlers who can penetrate off the dribble, run the PnR, and attack the lanes with crisp movement.

When you factor in Paul George’s three-level scoring and the presence of both Bona and Drummond, who are both reliable rollers out of the PnR, the Sixers have plenty of weapons to pressure the rim. The same can be said of Kelly Oubre Jr., who is consistently underrated as an all-around talent.

Furthermore, during the offseason, one of Daryl Morey’s key focuses was adding some additional athleticism to the wing rotation.

“What I did not do well was make sure we have the youth and athleticism to get through the regular season and put us in that position,” Morey said in May last year. “That’s something we’ll do next year.”

He achieved that with the additions of Barlow, Walker and Edwards. All three are capable slashers and cutters who can punish a team for late or lax rotations.

Attacking Closeouts

As you can see in the stats above, the lone area where the Sixers rank highly for both offensive frequency and efficiency is the long mid-range. That’s most likely impacted by how the Sixers look to use their scorers when attacking closeouts.

Paul George is a reliable long mid-range threat. So is Kelly Oubre Jr. Both Edgecombe and Maxey can do some damage between the free-throw line and three-point line, too.

If the Sixers can get you in rotation, so that you’re flying out onto one of their shooters, they will likely find some success in working a one or two-dribble pull-up inside of the three-point line.

For a defense that is willing to scramble when in rotation, Boston will need to be cognizant of that as the series wears on. Although given how the Celtics like to send gap help, any adjustment to take those looks away doesn’t feel like they’d be too hard to come by.

Protecting the mid-range & Impacting threes

It’s easy to let these positional defensive numbers fool you into thinking the Sixers are a solid defensive team. However, their strongest defensive work happens in predominantly low-volume areas of the floor. They’re a middling team when it comes to impacting shots at the rim, and just outside of the top-10 in protecting the perimeter.

One thing Nurse’s team does well is bait teams into taking a high volume of threes per game. That’s why they rank 20th in the NBA for defensive three-point frequency. They’re fine with letting you get your shots up because they know they can impact them at a good-enough rate for it to be an effective strategy.

Unfortunately for them, most teams that try to do this against the Celtics wind up getting decimated. A Mazzulla-coached team isn’t going to turn down an invitation to let a three fly. However, they will allow you to try and bait them before making the extra read to turn a good shot into a great one.

Daring one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the NBA to let it fly would be a risky strategy.

Nevertheless, the Sixers could be effective in shutting down some of the Celtics mid-range game, predominantly in the short mid-range area, which has become a weapon for guys like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard this year.

However, that doesn’t solve the Jaylen Brown problem — as he’s been crushing it from all areas of the mid-range and could easily shift his shot profile slightly further toward the elbows or free-throw line extended.

Still, the Sixers have enough interior defense to be a problem for Boston’s mid-range offense, which has accounted for 32.9% of their total offense this season. It could be an area to view as a battleground, and one that I’d still take the Celtics to secure a victory in.

Areas for the Celtics to exploit

Ok, so we’ve seen what the Sixers do well, or at least well for them.

Now, let’s look at some of the ways the Celtics can exploit their current roster and overall system.

It all starts with punishing

Philly’s drop defense

Even if Embiid were healthy, the Sixers would predominantly run a drop defense. That’s where Drummond is most effective, and is arguably best suited for Bona, too — although he does have enough mobility to operate up to touch or in a limited switching system.

Still, when the Sixers turn to a drop coverage defense, which, given their player personnel, they will have to, the Celtics should have their way via a five-out offense.

Mazzulla can approach this in one of two ways, and he will likely do both.

He can either use Neemias Queta as a weakside five-man, providing facilitation as a screen and dribble hand-off threat before rolling toward the rim. Or, he can lean into Nikola Vucevic and/or Luka Garza due to their ability to consistently knock down shots from deep.

Either option will punish the Sixers for leaving their big so far back, especially if Neemy is utilized in the short-roll, or if Boston runs inverted PnR’s to get a mobile and explosive forward heading downhill (think Tatum or Brown).

If Nurse tries to counter this by having Drummond or Bona playing at the level of the screen, the Celtics can use their spacing to hunt mismatches. After all, Tatum loves to cook bigs on the perimeter. As Willie says in Friday, “That’s my pleasure.”

Adjusting to shoot from the corners

Throughout the season, the Celtics have done most of their perimeter shooting damage on non-corner threes.

As you can see here, the Celtics are 29th in the NBA for corner three-point frequency. So, it’s not a shot they lean into very much.

However, given the Sixers' success defending non-corner looks and their inability to limit downhill drives, leaning into a spray-based offense, looking for corner shooters to score off the catch, could be the ideal counter to how the Sixers defend the perimeter.

Now, I’m not saying the Celtics should change up their entire offensive process. They are who they are because of the habits they’ve formed throughout the year. However, as a reliable counter, which could force the Sixers to blink and adapt, wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, especially later in the series, such as game three or four.

I can see Sam Hauser and Baylor Scheierman having a field day with open catch-and-shoot threes out of the corner. The beauty is, the Celtics could also have guys like Brown or Tatum sinking off the wing to provide an easy release valve, and their gravity would open things up as the Sixers looked to tilt the floor.

It’s worth noting that while the Celtics don’t get too many corner threes up, they’re among the best in the league at converting those attempts, ranking fourth on 42.4% shooting.

Punish the rim

Another option Boston has is to gut test the Sixers. Sure, they’re younger, more explosive and have some big bodies in the paint, but can they stop Brown, Tatum, Neemy or even Hugo Gonzalez from pounding the paint and exploding at the rim?

The Celtics might be dead last in rim frequency this season, but they’re 2nd in FG% within four feet of the bucket.

Simply put, they’re restricted area assassins when they want to be.

I see no reason why Boston can’t use that to their advantage if they have a night where their shots aren’t falling from deep. Philly struggles to deter drives and ranks middle of the pack in impacting finishes around the cup.

It feels like this could be found money if the Celtics decide to embrace the suck and bang with the Sixers for a string of possessions on a night where their finesse isn’t getting things done.

Boston can also look to dominate on the glass. Even with Drummond, the Sixers have struggled as a defensive rebounding unit this season, ranking 18th in the NBA. With Garza, Neemy and Vucevic all reliable board eaters, the Celtics could cook as an offensive-rebounding unit looking to generate easy buckets at the rim.

Mazzulla will have plenty of options at his disposal if he chooses to attack the paint at times, and given how the Sixers have looked this year, they’ll struggle to find any reasonable answers on defense.

Who scares me?

This one is easy. Maxey and Edgecombe. We’ve seen firsthand how tough this duo can be to slow down. They’re tough shot makers, solid creators and have that blend of speed and strength that can cause nightmares for perimeter defenders.

I think both have the ability to have game-winning nights throughout a potential seven-game series. I just don’t think they’re enough to nullify what the Celtics have throughout the roster. Of course, I could be wrong here, as Maxey and Edgecombe are no joke.

George is another name I should probably fear. However, at this stage of his career, you find yourself wondering which version we’re going to get on any given night. That level of inconsistency has me moderately worried, but not to the same degree as Maxey and Edgecombe, who both bring it game in and game out.

They’re the foundation Philly should be building around moving forward.

Final thoughts

This is the Celtics series. If they face Philly, we can expect that 12-4 record to continue growing. The Sixers won’t be an easy out, but I struggle to see how they can beat Boston four out of seven times. They’re simply too limited on offense to be a realistic threat, so long as the Celtics shooting doesn’t vanish up to Moron Mountain for an entire series.

If I had to make a prediction, I’m giving this to the Celtics in 5.

A gentleman’s sweep.

If both Maxey and Edgecombe have themselves a game, then maybe this goes to six. But that’s a big maybe.

Tomorrow, we look at the Magic.

Hands up.

When Jayson Tatum went down with a torn Achilles tendon.

When Brad Stevens embarked on cost-cutting measures that saw Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis traded.

When Al Horford and Luke Kornet left in free agency.

When Luka Garza, Josh Minott, and Hugo Gonzalez were bought in as replacement talent — ok, Hugo was a draft pick, but go with me here.

When Neemias Queta was elevated from fourth-string big man to starting five.

Who here thought we would be right where we are now?

Talking about the second seed in the Eastern Conference.

Waiting for the result of the play-in tournament to see what the opening round of the playoffs has in store for us.

If you’d asked me at the start of the season, the only point I would have agreed with was that Boston would be waiting on the play-in tournament. Not because they dominated all season and finished first or second in the East. Because that needed to navigate the do-or-die nature of those games to make it into the playoffs.

That’s where my head was at coming into the season.

When Joe Mazzulla’s team went 4-6 over their first 10 games of the season, including three straight losses out of the gate, I was ready to bunker down for a rough year.

A rebuilding year.

That’s what we’d sold ourselves on.

Then, Boston began picking up pace. Between games 11 and 21, the Celtics went 8-2.

Games 22-32 saw the same outcome, 8-2.

By then, we’d begun to believe.

If there’s one thing this Celtics team can do, it’s develop talent. You only have to look at last night’s game for proof of that.

With each passing week, Neemy, Baylor Scheierman and Luka Garza showed improvement to their games. Learning on the fly. Rising to the occasion.

The other developmental guys have also shone. From Jordan Walsh, to Minott (before he was traded), to Ron Harper Jr. and even Amari Williams (although mainly in the G League).

As each of those players improved their game, the Celtics’ talent pool got deeper and deeper and deeper.

From a pool to a pond.

A pond to a lake.

A lake to a river.

A river to a playoff-ready ocean.

The next step is to see whether this version of the Celtics are the sharks or the Orcas.

Hint, we want them to be the Orcas. Because in the real world, Orcas hunt sharks. Not the other way around.

Killer whale offense, remember?

For now, though, the Celtics sit in wait.

You can’t hunt what you can’t see.

We won’t know who their official first-round opponent is going to be until Wednesday night, when one of the Philadelphia 76ers or Orlando Magic secures a win and books their ticket into the first round.

Either way, the Celtics should feel confident about securing a dub. However, there’s a fine line between confidence and arrogance — Uncle Drew said that!

With that in mind, Boston is currently floating in calm waters. So, I wanted to share the plan.

Tuesday — We’ll be deep diving the Sixers.

Wednesday — We’ll be deep diving the Magic

Thursday — We get our first look at the Boston vs. X matchup head-to-head

Friday — We’ll be looking at positional matchup battles

Saturday — Potential X Factors

Sunday — There will be a mailbag

Each day, there will also be a podcast episode posted to YouTube, with different angles and ideas stemming from the newsletter. So now would be a good time to subscribe!

Here’s yesterday’s episode to get you up to speed.

The Boston Celtics vs. the New York Knicks.

A revenge game for Jayson Tatum, who suffered a brutal Achilles injury the last time he stepped foot in Madison Square Garden.

“I’m not like, thrilled, to go back and play there,” Tatum recently said. “Last time I played there, obviously, it was a traumatic experience for me. Obviously, I knew at some point I would have to get over that hurdle and play there again. So, it’s going to have to be this Thursday. But it’s not like I’m thrilled about it. But it’s part of it. I decided to come back and play, so I’m not necessarily skipping certain games. I can’t play back-to-backs right now, but I decided to come back and play, so it’s just another game on the schedule.”

A chance for the Celtics to even their season series against Mike Brown’s team (currently 2-1 for the Knicks).

An opportunity to secure the last regular-season game between these two rosters before the postseason gets underway.

And an opportunity to test whether the Knicks really are ready to emerge as the best team in the Eastern Conference.

A lot has been said about this Knicks team in recent weeks. Yet, the fact remains that they’re 10-5 in their last 15 outings and will be coming into tonight’s game on the back of a three-game winning streak, albeit against the Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks and Memphis Grizzlies.

That right there — the quality of teams New York has beaten over the last 15 games — has people questioning whether they can do the same against higher-level competition.

It’s worth noting that the five losses New York has suffered over the last 15 games all came against winning teams.

They’ve lost to the Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers, Charlotte Hornets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets.

It seems like, at least lately, the Knicks fold when faced with opponents capable of hitting back when they’ve been caught with a haymaker.

The Celtics will certainly hit back. They’ve been doing it all season.

Still, don’t let the Knicks fool you, their recent production might have slipped, but they’re still 27-22 against opponents with a .500 or better record.

They’re capable of winning tough games — at least for stretches.

Boston, on the other hand, has won 60% of its outings against .500 or better opponents, going a clean 30-20 heading into tonight.

That’s a testament to the consistency across the roster this season, and their willingness to adjust offensively based on ever-changing factors — such as shot variance and defensive schemes.

Talking of defensive schemes, Boston’s biggest defensive battle will come on the perimeter. Joe Mazzulla’s team gives up more three-point attempts than any other team in the NBA, and sits 16th in three-point defense.

That’s by design. The Celtics give up the fewest attempts at the rim, so the perimeter becomes the most valuable shot on the floor.

The problem? New York can capitalize. They’re shooting 37.6% from deep this season.

However…

42% of the Knicks’ threes come from the corner — a shot Boston works to eliminate, allowing just 9.2% of opponents three-point attempts from that area.

If Boston can shut down New York’s corner threes and force them to live on the wings and above the break, they should give themselves a good shot of stifling Mike Brown’s preferred offense, at least in terms of three-point shot creation.

From there, it becomes a battle of who blinks first to make an adjustment and how quickly the other side can adapt.

The Celtics will face their own battle when trying to break down the Knicks defense.

Read more

Or, you can dive into Luka Garza.

Garza came into the season with a lot on the line. Entering his fifth year in the league, the 6’10’’ big man had struggled to prove himself. His rookie year with the Detroit Pistons saw him play in 32 games before he headed out West to join the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Life didn’t get much easier for Garza in the following three years. To be fair, he was on a team that had Karl-Anthony Towns, Naz Reid, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle (not all at the same time). Breaking into that front-court rotation, with that level of competition in front of you, is a monumental task.

“Luka just passed his entire minutes just two games ago that he’d ever played the previous four years in the NBA,” his dad, Frank Garza, told the Celtics Chronicle. “But they (Minnesota) had four deep. I mean, you had Randle, you named the other three, but now you have Julius Randle, a beast, and I mean that with the ultimate respect. He is unstoppable. When his will is aligned with what his body can do.”

Garza joined the Celtics at a time when Brad Stevens was making a string of roster moves. Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet all left during the offseason. So, it was clear from the jump that Garza would have a clearer path to playing time if he could impress Joe Mazzulla and continue to improve throughout the season.

Turns out, both sides held up their end of the bargain.

We’ve seen Garza in 67 of Boston’s games this season. He’s putting up 7.7 points and 3.9 boards per game, spacing the floor with 44.1% shooting from three-point range.

It’s that three-point shooting that has set Garza apart this season, especially before the addition of Nikola Vucevic at the Feb. 5 trade deadline. His ability to run pick-and-pop, fade off screens and hit his catch-and-shoot looks at a high clip makes him the perfect complement to Queta’s rim-running skill set.

Garza has always flashed upside with his perimeter scoring, even throughout his four-year tenure in the Big Ten. However, it was a conversation with his dad, as his collegiate career was winding down, that led him to develop the other aspects necessary for a big man to thrive in a modern five-out offense.

“Now listen, here’s the big dude,” Frank said. “Won every reward, every award unanimously his senior year -- every one -- from Kareem to Pete Newell to all of them. Armstrong and Senior of the Year, all that stuff. To have his father and his (career) architect saying this won’t translate. And here we are today.”

"So what does he do?" Frank asked rhetorically.

“(He) transitioned into becoming an elite screener. To be so obsessed with getting Jaylen Brown open, (Payton) Pritchard, Sam (Hauser), now Jayson (Tatum), who’s an incredible passer off of that, as all of them are, to then becoming an elite offensive rebounder, building on his college career and then becoming an elite defender. And quick hands to deflect and get steals and block. I mean, he blocked Wemby’s shot ...”

You may wonder what led to such an honest conversation between father and son, yet in Frank’s mind, the reason was simple. “He had to change. I mean it was one of those, well what do we do (moments)?”

Development is never linear. It’s a cold fact of life. Sometimes, it takes months, others years, before you get to your destination. We’ve all experienced that fact in some way, shape or form throughout our lives.

So, for Garza, the past four years have been building him toward this opportunity. In return, he’s proven himself to be one of the best (and most physical) screeners in the NBA.

Most importantly, he’s begun to dispel the notion that he’s an awful defender — showcasing his mobility as a drop defender.

“This team is great at defense,” Frank said. “So, he’s surrounded by a team that takes pride in defense. They take pride in it, and they get upset if someone scores. You see that. So does the coach. ‘You scored on me, that’s not gonna happen again.’ And so, he’s benefited (from that).”

Unfortunately for Garza, his direct path to minutes took a hit when Vucevic came to town. When healthy, Vucevic has made that back-up big man role his own. As such, Garza is back to being patient, waiting his turn and working on his game outside of the limelight.

Nevertheless, it would appear that Garza (and those around him) are looking for the positives in the current situation. So, rather than feeling slighted by Vucevic’s arrival, Garza is looking to learn from the veteran big man, which in turn should help improve his own game moving forward.

“Luka and Vooch talk a lot,” Frank explained. “You ask him, ‘Hey, what would you do against this team? You’ve been in the league so long. You’re this and that. You’re an All-Star.’ We’re so happy for that.”

Currently, Vucevic’s contract is set to expire at the end of the season. He will become an unrestricted free agent at that point. Garza, however, has another year left on his deal. So, unless the Celtics opt to re-sign Vucevic in the summer, Boston’s emergent big man will have the opportunity to put everything he’s learning into practice.

If he does well, and finds a level of consistent production that benefits the team, his future in Boston could last far longer than one more season. We saw a similar trajectory with Luke Kornet — and even Neemy.

From Garza’s standpoint, remaining in Boston long-term would be the ideal way for things to play out. Honestly — that would probably still be the case even if Vucevic does come back for another run with the team.

Why, I hear you ask?

“In our family, there’s such a thing as unconditional commitment,” Frank said. “There are no conditions. We’re unconditionally committed to winning for this city, for his teammates, for his coach, for Brad. They gave him the shot.”

…If you want to watch the interview in its entirety, you can do so on YouTube; the video is embedded below.

Full disclaimer: This newsletter was supposed to be set out yesterday. I wrote it, did all the good stuff, and then woke up this morning to find the tab still open and the newsletter sitting there unsent.

So, to avoid flooding your inboxes, I’m sending this today, and we’ll look at the Hornets game tomorrow. My apologies.

Sit with that for a second.

The Boston Celtics have built an identity around floor-spacing, possession victories and winning the numbers game.

High-quality three-point volume is the foundation of Mazzulla-ball.

So when they shoot under 30% from deep, they should lose, right?

Well…maybe…but not so much these days.

Boston is 7-11 in games where it’s shot 30% or under from three this season. Not great — a .39 win percentage, but when compared to previous seasons, it’s an uptick in success.

2024-25: .31 with 9 losses and 4 wins

2023-24: .333 with 8 losses and 4 wins

2022-23: .333 with 12 losses and 6 wins.

This season, despite being arguably the weakest team Mazzulla has coached — or at least that was the narrative coming in — Boston has its highest win rate in sub-30% three-point shooting nights of Mazzulla’s tenure so far.

That seventh win came on Easter Sunday, with a 115-101 win over the Toronto Raptors. The same Raptors who currently project as being a potential first-round matchup.

Beating the Raptors isn’t anything new for the Celtics. They hold a 17-3 record over their last 20 meetings. Sunday’s game was the fifth time Boston has shot 30% or under from deep during the 20-game span, going back to Ime Udoka’s lone season with the franchise.

The Celtics are 4-1 in those games.

Last night, the story fell into two chapters: the team’s work in attacking hard hedges on the pick-and-roll, and its ability to get downhill on drives.

Trimming the hedge

Neemias Queta ended Sunday afternoon with 18 points to his name — good for his fifth-highest-scoring game of the season. In the first few minutes alone, Queta had six of Boston’s eight points, as the team punished how Toronto looked to shut down the PnR.

Take note of how both PnR defenders stick with Jaylen Brown. They’re heading to take away the threat of his drive. As a result, Neemy is free to slip his screen, blowing open the defensive coverage and giving him an open line to the rack.

Credit to Brown, his hesitation after starting to drag out his dribble created the ideal passing lane to find Neemy on the roll, forcing Jakob Poeltl to try and recover in hopes of contesting Neemy’s shot.

Update: he didn’t get there in time.

This was the first instance of how the Celtics attacked Toronto’s hedge.

It became a sub-plot for most of the game.

Different quarter, same principle. As soon as Queta veer screens1 for Jayson Tatum, the defense hard hedges out to the ball, leaving Neemy wide open to slip the screen and begin rolling to the basket.

Credit Toronto here, Brandon Ingram helps off the weakside corner to tag Neemy, but by then, the Celtics’ big man has already sealed Ingram on his hips and is well-positioned to receive the pass from Tatum. Like Brown in the first clip, Tatum has dragged out his dribble to create the passing angle.

Here’s a different way things can look when a team is overreacting to defending the PnR, while the offensive team is struggling from deep.

Here, the Raptors switch this initial action, in what seems like it was intended to be a switch-and-recover to avoid a mismatch. Nikola Vucevic’s screen takes the on-ball defender out of the action for a beat, leading to two defenders closing in on Payton Pritchard.

Vucevic rolls to the paint, creating somewhat of a clunky logjam in the restricted area. Yet, even with the veteran big man hovering around the rim, the defense stays locked in on Pritchard.

The play ends up being a little ugly, but it still results in two points off of a PnR roll action.

What does this tell us?

When perimeter shots aren’t falling at a high rate, finding ways to attack gaps in the defensive coverage is key to generating sustainable interior offense. Boston has enjoyed multiple games this season where they’ve dismantled a hedging defense, so it was easy for them to slip into this form of attack.

Swerve When I Drive

Yes, this title is a wrestling reference. It is my other “sporting” love, after all.

According to Cleaning The Glass, 34% of Boston’s offense came within 4 feet of the rim against Toronto, with the team converting at an 86.2% clip. At the time of writing, NBA Stats hasn’t updated to show the volume of drives, but I’m assuming it’s a healthy enough amount.

The fact remains that the Celtics no longer feel the need to try to overcorrect when shots aren’t dropping from deep.

Instead, they keep within their usual volume of perimeter shots to keep the defense honest and maximize their looks at the rim.

Take Brown, for instance; 10 of his 11 buckets came on the interior, almost exclusively off drives.

A key reason why it’s important to keep firing away from deep on tough shooting nights is that it ensures the defense doesn’t adjust to taking away the paint. The Celtics are 3rd in the NBA for 3-point frequency and 10th for accuracy — if they’re going to take them, you have to respect the threat.

So, when Brown was bringing the ball up in the above clip, the Raptors were spaced out, with a high pick-up point, primed to defend the perimeter. However, Brown is among the best drivers in the league.

A quick tween-tween crossover, a burst of speed followed by a deceleration step, and boom, Brown is at the rim, with enough space to create the bucket.

That’s how you counter a defense early, especially one that’s expecting another deep-range bomb.

This clip sees Brown do his best Ricky Bobby impression, hitting his man with a little Shake…And…Bake!

The premise is the same, although in this instance, it’s more of an isolation bucket against a full set half-court defense.

No matter.

Brown comes off a little flip action with Payton Pritchard, drives, stops, spins (and breaks ankles), then an easy finish at the rim. Another high-quality look against a defense that has been spread out by a 4-out, 1-in offensive setup from Boston.

It’s key to note that placing Queta in the dunker spot provides vertical spacing, which is why the defense is as spread out as it is.

Same principle here. The Celtics are in a five-out2 offense with Queta operating at the delay3. Boston looks to run a standard Zoom action, with Sam Hauser more of a brush screener than a pin-down screener.

Tatum recognizes the defense loading up at the hand-off spot, so he rejects the DHO and 45 cuts4 before receiving the pass and finishing at the rim.

Again, working out of the perimeter — PnR, flares, delay, etc — is a great way to use the threat of a three, even when the shots aren’t falling. Boston is fortunate enough to have multiple high-level slashers, cutters and drivers in the rotation, which is why they found success when pounding the ball inside.

Playoff Perfect

We’ve all said it at one point or another: shooting a high volume of threes is great, but shot variance will always play a factor. There will be nights when shots just don’t fall, regardless of how open you are, how well they were manufactured or how much of an elite shooter is taking the shot.

At times, the Celtics have fallen into the trap of trying to shoot their way out of rough spells. Sometimes it works, but usually, they start forcing things, and it goes from bad to worse.

Lately, though, they’ve adjusted in approach, leaned into their other strengths and found ways to win (at least more frequently than before) despite their shooting struggles.

When the playoffs roll around, and we’re watching a game essentially every other day, tough shooting nights are a potential hazard. So, seeing the Celtics get some more interior reps against Toronto certainly wasn’t a bad thing.

The question is, does this make them ready for what's to come in the playoffs? At least in terms of the potential in-game adjustments they’ll need to make on the fly?

I’m not saying yes, but I’m not not saying yes, either.

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