A Monday Mailbag - Lots of Tatum talk
Getting our Monday off to a good start
Good morning!
Happy Monday!
Today, we’ve got some mailbag questions to get through, so let’s dive straight in!
🗣️ Curtis Jude asks: Are we all assuming too much with Jayson Tatum being back to anything close to himself this season at all?
💬 I think so. I’m not expecting him to be anywhere near an All-NBA level this season (assuming he returns). I have his ceiling somewhere around an All-Star — which is still a massive boost to Boston’s postseason chances. It’s going to be clunky at first. His conditioning will likely be a work in progress, as will his on-court feel and overall rhythm.
That’s why ensuring there are enough games left on the calendar should be viewed as essential if he is coming back this season. The longer ramp-up you can give him, while still being cognizant of his recovery, is key.
So, at this point, I think the question becomes, “what constitutes as being ‘back to himself?’”
For me, that means being back to an All-NBA level. And if that’s what you’re hoping for, then yeah, that’s probably too much.
If you’re hoping for All-Star or borderline All-Star production by some point in the playoffs, I’d argue that it’s a lofty goal, but a fair one. Tatum is so talented and can impact the game in so many ways that it’s feasible he reaches that level before the end of the season — if he’s given a big enough runway in the regular season.
Kevin Durant’s comments from the All-Star break seem to be along the same line, too.
“I expect him to be at an all-star level,” Durant said. “Obviously, at some point, he's going to get there. I just think that. Early on, he may ease into it and figure out his rhythm and his flow and his timing because that takes a weeks… a while after being out for so long. So I think you're going to be right back to Jayson.”
In my defense, I’ve been saying an All-Star ceiling for months, with the podcast receipts to back it up.
🗣️ Allorin asked: Put your neck on the line, when do you think JT will be back? (Best educated guess)
💬 First of all, this question came from the Discord channel. Join here!
Let me preface this response by stating that i’m not a doctor, have no medical training, and therefore, my guess is just that…a guess.
With that being said, I’d guess that if Tatum does return, it will be the last week of February or the first week of March. I know a lot of eyes are focused on the March 1 showdown between the Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers, due to the start time being moved from 6 pm to 8 pm, per Steve Bulpett.
Tatum has long said that his first game back will be in front of the TD Garden. And, with the Sixers game being moved to a prime time slot, it’s a fair guesstimate that Tatum could tentatively be penciled in for a return.
However, rehabs are fickle. There’s no guarantee Tatum will be cleared by March 1. Anything can happen. He could have soreness. Swelling. Or, the medical staff may want another week of 5-on-5 work before signing off.
Still, if Tatum is coming back this season, I would hope/imagine/guess that the next 2 or 3 weeks would be the logical time frame for him. That way, he would have ample ramp-up time ahead of the playoffs, which bodes well for minutes management, etc.
🗣️ Mo asked: Now that we know we got Hugo, Walsh, Scheierman and probably Harper Jr. for the rest of the regular season, what do they each need to show heading into a playoff run? How do we think they’re going to fit when JT comes back — do we think JT will benefit each of them?
💬 (Another Q from the Discord)!!
I’ll be honest, once Tatum is back, and the inevitable minutes restriction has been lifted, his return will consume a considerable amount of playing time that is currently being afforded to others.
Right now, I think Baylor Scheierman’s minutes are the safest, simply because his ball-handling fills some of the void left from Anfernee Simons’ exit at the trade deadline. He’s averaging 24.6 minutes per night since Feb. 4, compared to the 14.4 he’s averaged this season.
I’d expect Ron Harper Jr’s minutes to be all but gone, unless Scheierman is having some stinkers, Tatum is sitting out, or injuries/rest days occur elsewhere on the roster.
And that leaves Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez.
One of those two will likely see a decrease in playing time. Not only are they out of the rotation, but they also fall deeper into the bench.
“Guys like Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh have given Boston really big lifts this season,” Keith Smith said on the Celtics Chronicle podcast in January. “Tatum just needs to be better than those guys. Cause that's who he's replacing in the rotation…Walsh's 20 minutes will drop down to 10. And 10 more minutes, go to Tatum, and so forth, and that's how Tatum gets probably somewhere in the 25-minute range to start.”
I agree with Keith here.
The only question I have is who Joe steals minutes from out of Walsh and Hugo — assuming any minutes going to Harper instantly move to Tatum — or whether both see a decrease but still get on the court.
Nevertheless, I think that the defense Hugo and Walsh provide will ease some of the expectations on Tatum on that side of the floor. Ideally, you want Tatum carrying a light load in multiple areas with maybe one or two key focuses. For me, that’s playmaking and shooting off the catch.
Then, as his fitness ramps up, you expand the role bit by bit.
In terms of Tatum helping those young guys…They’re going to have more space to play in, more passes heading their way, and more opportunities to work as inverted (or standard) screeners. Tatum will command a sizeable pick-and-roll % within the team’s offense. Getting creative with some of the younger guys, due to their explosiveness and potential to be effective downhill, could be a smart play.
🗣️ Joel asked: The future seems bright for Hugo. What do you think he should focus on this summer to take the “next step”?
💬 Right now, I think it’s just about improving his scoring profile. He’s currently hitting 32.9% of his 3-point shots on 1.6 attempts per game. Low enough volume to believe there’s plenty of long-term upside there. As the Celtics get closer to full strength, Hugo could find himself getting more opportunities off the catch, especially if he’s on the second side as a release valve.
We already know Hugo can drive the lane, and he’s an exciting cutter (something else I would like to see more of), but if you want to thrive in a Joe Mazzulla system, hitting 36% or more of your threes, at a reasonable volume, is essential.
Once defenses are forced to respect him on the perimeter, opportunities will open up elsewhere.
As for his defense, he has the motor, instincts and basketball IQ to continue scaling on this side of the floor through reps and experience. He’s in the perfect spot to develop his defensive attributes in a culture that values that side of the floor.
For that reason, I think his perimeter shooting - specifically off the catch - should be one of his primary focuses this summer. With Tatum coming back sooner or later, that, at least to me, makes the most sense.
Another aspect I would like to see is his ability to create space on the move: ghost screens, burn cuts, etc.
🗣️ Justin Quinn asked: Where do you stand on the Great Tanking Debate?
💬 Said in a Mr. Mackey voice from South Park, “Mhmm, Tanking Is Bad, Okay…”
I get it. Having multiple teams pulling the plug is never good for the product. You want the league to be as competitive as possible. But the fact is that in any given year, some teams are going to be bad.
“The issue is if teams are manipulating their performance in order to get higher draft picks, even in a lottery, then the question becomes, even if teams were rewarded for draft picks purely according to predicted odds of the lottery, are they really the worst performing teams?” Adam Silver said, via The Athletic.
Silver has long hunted for parity across the league. In a lot of respects, we’re getting that more and more each year. The Western Conference is wide open. And, teams like Detroit or Indiana (last season) have proven that rebuilding the right way still works.
So, if there’s something Silver can do to encourage legitimate rebuilds without rewarding tanking, then go for it. But I’m not sure what that is.
I saw two ideas mentioned online this weekend, and while I’m unsure of the validity of these ideas (were they suggested? Did Silver mention them? Or are they just hokum?), I’ll give a quick take.
A tournament to establish lottery position
Aren’t we consistently speaking about how long the current season is? Don’t we consistently discuss potentially shortening the season? The answer, surely, isn’t then to add another round of games on top…
Get rid of the draft and let all rookies enter as free agents
This would make the league more like European soccer, where the best teams consistently snap up the best talents. If you want a “big four” or “big five” then sure, go for it…But honestly, that parity Silver is searching for…It won’t come via this method. Or at least, I highly doubt it.
In truth, leagues that don’t have a draft system, and thus, tanking isn’t an issue, usually have dominant franchises and then everyone else. If tanking is the price to pay for a fairly even playing field and consistent excellence throughout the rest of the league, then so be it.
It’s not pretty. It’s kinda sucky. But, it props up a level of fairness that is rarely seen outside of US Sports.
Silver has a fine line to walk…
Right, that’s me for today! Happy to be back to the grind!
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Tonje and Banton signed to 10 days buys us some time to make the final moves. Does this mean Tonje can't resign as a 2 way? he can be a poor man's Cam Thomas, quick and attacks well and stronger. https://youtu.be/bFGeQf5Brsg
Something about this analysis for Tatum makes me excited. I definitely agree that him even performing at a fringe star level is huge - and because he's a versatile threat it's super possible without him even needing to post gaudy numbers.