Beware The Trap Game

The Warriors could come out to play

Steve Kerr has been navigating an injury report so long it could pass as the NBA’s version of War & Peace.

And yet, this is exactly the kind of game that can trip teams up.

The Boston Celtics will face a heavily depleted Golden State Warriors group without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Al Horford, Seth Curry, and potentially multiple rotation pieces.

As Celtics fans, we should be aware of the risks that come with underestimating an injury-hit opponent.

The Warriors have lost seven of their last ten games and were on a five-game losing streak before beating the Washington Wizards. However, three of those losses came down to the final possession, with a few others within ten points.

Boston can’t sleep on Golden State, the same way teams couldn’t sleep on the Celtics.

If there was ever a trap game to be cautious about, this would be it.

Kerr will lean on Draymond Green’s leadership, Brandin Podziemski’s all-around production, and young up-and-comers such as Will Richard.

If Porzingis plays and is anywhere near in shape, he will be a threat, too.

Don’t get me wrong, Boston is the favorite coming into this game, and we shouldn’t expect it to be any other way.

Still, we’ve seen how losing a star player — whether for the season or, in Curry’s case, an extended stretch — can unite a team, especially one with high-level talent and a young core looking to prove itself.

If you step back ever so slightly, you can see the similarities.

Thankfully, under Joe Mazzulla, the Celtics rarely take their foot off the gas. There’s not even a thread of entitlement within the team’s fabric. They compete to the best of their ability, regardless of the opponent.

According to StatHead, the Celtics are 24-6 against sub-.500 teams this season, while the Warriors are 17-25 against teams over .500.

By the math, Boston is highly favorable coming into this game, especially given its consistent success against subpar opposition. However, they might need to put in the work if they want to create success with their usual shot profile.

According to Cleaning The Glass, the Warriors are 11th in the NBA for defending the 3-point line, holding opponents to 35.7% from deep. To make matters worse for the Celtics, Golden State is 10th in the NBA for limiting 3’s, with 37.2% of their opponents’ shot profile coming from deep this season.

There is a weak link in the Warriors’ defense, though — and one that can be exploited without the three-point threat that the Curry brothers bring to the table. And that weak link is the mid-range shot.

The Warriors are 26th in the NBA for mid-range volume allowed and 27th for mid-range shot defense. Put simply, if you can get shots off in the middle of the floor, Golden State does very little to impact them. Opponents are shooting 45.5% from mid-range this season.

What could the mid-range matter? Because the Celtics are 6th in the league for mid-range shooting percentage (45.6%) and 7th in the league for mid-range volume, 2nd for long mid-range volume.

Kerr likes for the Warriors to deter rim drives. They lack rim protection, so they work proactively to reduce the number of attempts in the restricted area. When facing a team that boasts one of the best bully drivers in the league (Jaylen Brown), the Warriors could find themselves forced into defensive collapses.

From there, the Celtics can attack the mid-range, which will be open all night long. Or, they can kick, swing, swing and get an open three. Both methods work.

I’m not saying the Celtics need to live in the mid-range to secure a win over the Warriors. I get it. This isn’t the 80s, 90s or even the early 2000s.

What I am saying is that it’s the ideal counter to whatever Golden State throws at them defensively. From there, Mazzulla’s team just needs to stay locked in on defense. Even shorthanded, the Warriors have enough players who can do damage if left unchecked.

I’ve got the Celtics winning this one. A blowout wouldn’t be surprising. But that confidence comes with caution.

The Celtics were overlooked to start the season and are now being discussed as potential Finals contenders. Things change fast in the NBA.

Taking care of sub-.500 teams shouldn’t.