Making Sense Of The Rumor Mill
More on the never-ending Jaylen Brown situation
Less than a day. That’s how long it took for LaMelo Ball to go from a trade rumor to being traded.
Must be nice.
Over in Boston Celtics land, rumors surrounding the future of Jaylen Brown continue to dominate our consumption. From the moment the Celtics struck out on Giannis, it’s been a new string of daily updates.
The common consensus is that Brown’s tenure with the Celtics is over. That in the coming days, weeks, maybe even months, he will be traded to a new situation, and the Celtics will begin building again.
We’ve all seen the reporting, or at least some of it. But, with new updates coming thick and fast, I thought now would be the perfect time to provide a round-up, before trying to read between the lines.
Brian Windhorst — He’s going to get traded.
“Yeah, he's going to get traded, okay?” Brian Windhorst said on Unsportsmanlike this morning. “…Obviously, they offered him very strongly to the Bucks. Then Brad Stevens came out and said many, many wonderful things about him and respectful and all that stuff. He never said he wasn't trading him. Which he obviously could have done. And he met with Jaylen before this happened, and he didn't meet with them to say, 'Hey, uh, are you summering in Greece? Are you summering? Are you going to try the Mediterranean?
He obviously told them that there's seriously a chance they're going to trade him. So now, whether they can find a trade — because look — Jaylen Brown is 29 years old, coming off his best season under contract for three years. Those are things that you like, you want. It's not a guarantee that they're going to be able to find a deal that they like that's going to improve the team. But I think they are intending to trade him.”
Jay King — There’s some belief Boston would accept young players + draft picks
“It would be no surprise if Brown stays with the Celtics and continues his highly successful partnership with Jayson Tatum indefinitely,” King wrote for The Athletic. “However, there is a growing perception that the organization would consider the idea of trading Brown for the right price.”
“There have been whispers around the league of Boston’s interest in New Orleans Pelicans wing Trey Murphy III. There is even some belief that the Celtics front office would consider offers based more on younger prospects, picks and pick swaps. In any potential deal, Boston would be expected to demand top value for Brown, who is coming off a sixth-place MVP finish.”
Zach Lowe — Isn’t betting that Brown will be on the roster next season
"It feels like the the toothpaste is too far out of the tube with Jaylen Brown," Lowe said on his podcast. "If you ask me right now... I don't think Jaylen Brown starts the season with the Boston Celtics next year. That could end up being wrong,...I'm not saying that definitively, I'm saying if you made me bet, yes or no, is Jaylen Brown a Celtic next year, I'm betting no."
Kevin O’Connor — Timberwolves preferred LaMelo
“Sources: The Timberwolves explored Jaylen Brown trades with Boston before the LaMelo Ball deal was completed with Charlotte,” O’Connor reported via Twitter. “LaMelo was the preferred target, though.”
Shams Charania - Boston engaging in talks with purpose
“The Boston Celtics are actively engaged in trade talks surrounding Jaylen Brown with multiple interested teams, and I'm told there is a sense of purpose from teams around the league that they feel from the Celtics in these conversations,” Shams said on night 2 of the NBA Draft.
“That does not mean though that a deal is guaranteed because Jaylen Brown does have three years left on his contract he's got a super max deal that he's on but my understanding is that the urgency from either side could change as the weeks go on.”
The throughline
The primary throughline in all of the above reporting is that Boston is still open to trading Brown this summer. Now, being open to doing something and actually doing it are two very different things.
I’ve been open to relocating the family to the USA for the past 10-15 years. I haven’t done it, because I don’t fit the criteria for a residency visa.
The same can be said for Brad Stevens and Brown. You can be open to trading him, but if a deal that fits your criteria doesn’t manifest, then you keep pushing as things are and trust that everything will smooth itself out over time.
Is keeping Brown beyond this summer optimal? That all depends on how frosty things are behind the scenes. We’re not privy to that information. All I know is that unless Brown explicitly requests a trade, there’s no urgency to get a deal done — unless you’re trying to avoid that request so you can maximize the return.
Then, of course, we have the question of what an optimal return for Brown would be, and that’s arguably the most contentious area of this whole situation. For some, a star-level big is ideal. For others, anything less than a comparative star in return would be a blunder.
And then, there’s the potential for a haul. A string of younger guys, most of whom have the potential to take developmental leaps. A handful of future first-round picks, pick swaps, and maybe some second-rounders. The type of deal Jay King noted in the quote above.
Arguments for and against the young player route
For: Let’s imagine, just for a moment, the Celtics do go the route where Brown is traded for multiple younger talents and picks. Odds are, those talents plug gaps. Maybe one is a guard, another is a big man, and the draft picks either turn into future talents or get flipped in a subsequent deal.
Does a more well-balanced roster, with Jayson Tatum as the spearhead, make the Celtics more or less competitive?
Going from two star-level contributors to one is a clear talent drop. However, if we look toward the Indiana Pacers, there’s something to be said about a string of interchangeable parts surrounding a truly elite talent. A roster where there’s no drop-off between the bench and starting unit is a roster that’s hard to beat. The only real worry comes via those non-Tatum minutes when he inevitably sits.
Then, of course, you have the chance for someone on the roster to rise to the occasion. To gradually backfill the minutes, usage, touches and impact that Brown leaves behind. A cost-controlled future star could emerge. It’s not unheard of for someone to step up when the chance of a bigger role is on the table.
There’s also the fact that as guys rise to the occasion, their value increases, and as their value increases, the opportunity to enter the race for a true superstar partner to Tatum re-emerges. Or, the entire Brown trade starts to look far better for Boston in hindsight — either is a win. Unfortunately, both paths carry a lot of “well if this happens, or that happens.” It’s a road of unknowns.
Against: Getting somewhat of a haul sounds great, right? Maybe not. When teams push for a package like that, it’s usually because they’re entering a rebuild. The young players become the future of the franchise, and the draft picks give them optionality in the coming years. They’re stocking their war chest in the hopes of a draft class like this year’s or a superstar being willing to join.
That’s not where the Celtics are.
The Celtics are aiming to contend. With or without Brown, it would appear.
It’s hard to envision Stevens risking Tatum’s prime years by accepting a package that doesn’t elevate the Celtics back toward becoming the undeniable favorites in the Eastern Conference.
Could a haul do both things? Give the Celtics optionality while also elevating the roster? Anything is possible, especially with this coaching staff and the player development system in place. It’s a much harder path, though.
To me, this feels like the move you make if Brown has requested out, because that’s when his value will start to slide. Right now, that doesn’t appear to be the case, and therefore, his market value should still be sky-high following a 6th-placed finish in MVP voting.
Accepting a rebuilding-style package could make sense, depending on the package itself, but it certainly wouldn’t be a move to maximize the upcoming season.
Living in the unknown
Whenever Brown has been floated in trade rumors before, the noise surrounding his potential exit has died once the “target” has landed elsewhere. That isn’t the case this time around. Giannis is off the board. Yet, Brown continues to be named as a potential domino to drop in the coming weeks.
The tough reality of this is that we’re living in the unknown. Brown could be back next season, he could be elsewhere. At this point, I’m not sure the front office would have an answer for you, even if they were willing to give you straight-up honesty.
My only hope right now is that whatever’s happening with Brown doesn’t derail the other work that needs to be done. The acquisition of a guard. The locating and adding of another big man. Tough decisions over who stays and who goes from the contingent of team options Boston must pick up or decline.
Brown can be a trade piece. We have no control over that. What he can’t be is a tool to explain away a summer of inaction. We’ve done our years of “gee, well, we tried to get him.” The roster has to improve, one way or another. If we can see steps being taken toward that end, at least then, living with the unknown will be somewhat easier to stomach.