Jaylen Brown Called Out the Refs. The Numbers Back Him Up.

A deep dive into the Boston Celtics free-throw disparity this season.

Chalk another one in the loss column.

Joe Mazzulla’s team is now 12-10 on the season against teams with a .500-or-better record, following their 100-95 loss to the San Antonio Spurs.

The discussion coming out of Saturday’s defeat was, understandably, the free-throw disparity. Jaylen Brown was especially vocal during his time with the media at the end of the night.

“I'll accept a fine at this point,” Brown said. “I thought it was some bullshit. I think they're a good defensive team, but they ain't that damn good…It's the same shit every time we play a good team. It's like they refuse to make a call, and (then) call touch fouls on the other end. And that's just extremely frustrating. We play hard. We are outplaying our expectations. We compete hard on the defensive end, and they reward the other team with touch fouls, and we go down there. And guys are allowed to get away with it. Just somebody, please pull it up. Every time we play a good team, the inconsistency is crazy.”

Brown’s frustrations are understandable. Boston had a grand total of four — yes, four — free throw attempts on the night. The Spurs, on the other hand, ended the game with 20.

Until yesterday, Boston’s season low for free-throw attempts against teams with a .500 record or better was 7, and that came against the Houston Rockets on Nov. 1. Interestingly, that was the Celtics’ biggest free-throw disparity of all games against winning teams. Houston had 35 attempts at the line that night - a whopping 28 additional attempts.

Overall, the Celtics are averaging 18.27 free throws per game against winning teams. They’re giving up 24.32 free throws per game against those same opponents.

That’s a discrepancy of -6.05 per game.

Mazzulla’s team is 6-9 in games where they’re in a free-throw attempt deficit.

Ok…So, we know the Celtics aren’t getting a friendly whistle when facing teams that have a .500 record or better. But, where do they stand compared to the rest of the NBA?

I pulled data from every NBA game this season in which at least one team on the court currently has a .500 or better record. Turns out, Brown has a point…The Celtics have the largest free-throw discrepancy in the NBA when facing teams that are either .500 or above…or as Brown put it…”good teams.”

“Every time we play a good team, it's the same bullshit,” Brown continued.

Looking at this chart, it’s no surprise that the Spurs ended last night with such a dominant differential in free-throw attempts. They’re leading the league is FT differential against .500 opponents — a Wembanyama conspiracy? Or the Luke Kornet effect — you decide.

When players call out officials after the game, it’s often brushed off as sour grapes. It’s seen as whining, being a sore loser, or we put it down to the level of competitiveness that it takes to be elite at the NBA level.

However, the fact remains that when two high-quality teams face each other, victories often occur in the margins. Free-throw attempts are one of those margins. If you’re consistently at a disadvantage, you’re already facing an uphill battle.

To quote South Park, “If you french fry when you should pizza, you're gonna have a bad time!"

Now, the problem with getting to the line is that it requires game officials to make the calls. You can be as aggressive as you want; if the whistle isn’t getting blown, the rest is out of your control.

Take this possession from last night…

Brown gets the rock in the corner, on a secondary offensive possession following some solid work from Neemias Queta on the offensive glass. Stephon Castle forces him baseline, essentially using the end of the court as an additional defender.

As Brown muscles his way into space, Luke Kornet comes in with the help defense, jumping to contest the shot. Kornet doesn’t go straight up. He’s clearly moving forward. Brown is knocked off his spot, misses the shot — no foul call.

Cool. Let them play…As long as that energy is reciprocated on the Celtics’ defensive end, which it wasn’t. I’ll let you pinpoint some other plays where the whistle stayed in the ref's pocket.

Look, I get it. The Celtics’ style of play means they’re unlikely to ever be near the top of the free-throw attempts leaderboard. However, even when driving the rock — which happens on 44.6 occasions per game — they’re among the bottom of the league for foul calls, with 5.6 attempts out of drives per game.

Still, we can't stand on the rooftops yelling about a conspiracy when only looking at half the data. We’ve got to contextualize based on the type of whistle Boston gets when facing sub-.500 teams, too. So let’s do that.

First, we will start with how the Celtics fare in their 16 games against sub.-500 teams so far.

In those 16 games, the Celtics are averaging 1.94 fewer free throws per game than their opponent. Still a discrepancy, but one you can contextualize based on their perimeter style.

You can live with that.

It’s also worth noting that Boston’s sub-.500 opponents also average 2.5 free throws less per game than when the Celtics face a +.500 opponent.

And now, let’s look at where the Celtics sit from a league-wide standpoint…

Boston is sixth in the NBA for free-throw disparity against sub-500 opponents. The Los Angeles Lakers lead the league in this category, which, given the presence of Luka Doncic, makes sense.

Interestingly, middling teams, such as the Portland Trail Blazers and New Orleans Pelicans, are relatively neutral regardless of opponent quality.

Overall, the Celtics get to the line 4.1 times more when facing a “bad” team than a “good” one. That backs Brown’s concerns from his discussion with the media last night. Moreover, that equates to two full offensive possessions, which can, and does, swing games.

“We shot four free throws tonight and lost the game by four. Not to say that's the whole game, the whole story,” Brown said. “We gotta be better in spots, I gotta be better in spots, but goddamn.”

The numbers are clear.

Now, the caveat to this conversation is that better teams often commit fewer shooting fouls. They force mistakes, rather than make them.

They rotate better.

They don’t reach as much.

They have a system that works.

However, it’s not like the Celtics are a bad team.

They’re 3rd in the Eastern Conference, with a 24-14 record. They are, however, 16th in defensive rating, per Cleaning The Glass. They’re also 15th in the league for defensive field-goal rate.

The issue is, Boston is dead last for offensive free-throw rate, getting to the line on just 16.5% of its overall offensive possessions. And that is the crux of this argument. How can a team that is so talented offensively be at such a free-throw disparity when facing some of the better units in the NBA?

Brown’s postgame rant will probably cost him $25,000. But he said what needed saying. Only getting to the line for four attempts vs. the Spurs was an extreme case. Still, the pattern is undeniable. Against good teams, Boston’s current free-throw discrepancy is putting them at a two-possession handicap before the whistle blows.

How much of that is on limited execution vs. judgment calls from game officials that, at times, have been highly questionable?

Nevertheless, it’s something the Celtics, or the league, will need to address before the postseason starts. Because as they get deeper into the playoffs, the Celtics will face nothing but good teams, and a two-possession handicap on a nightly basis will be devastating.

* All free-throw data used here is courtesy of StatHead.com unless otherwise mentioned or hyperlinked.

* When pulling data for sub-.500 teams, I used any team with a win ratio of 0.449%.