Winners of the Jaylen Brown trade
Looking ahead for the post-Brown Celtics
From the moment Jaylen Brown got traded, fans have been litigating the decision. Things got worse when Shams Charania reported that Brown landing with the Philadelphia 76ers is what put them on LeBron James’ roster.
“Jaylen Brown, the moment he got traded to the Sixers from Boston a couple of days into free agency, the Sixers came onto LeBron James’ radar,” Shams said on a recent episode of SportsCenter. “Now they have landed LeBron James on a two-year minimum contract to try to win a championship in the East.”
It feels like, from the moment that trade was finalized, we’ve looked at everything about it through a negative lens. I get it. What we expected as a return for Brown, and what Boston actually received, were miles apart.
The fact that Brown went to a conference rival that eliminated the Boston Celtics just weeks earlier stung. It stung bad. Now, knowing that helped the Sixers form a superteam, that wound has been opened up even more.
Sooner or later, though, we’ve got to look ahead and get behind the roster the Celtics will take into the new season.
For that reason, we’re starting off this week by looking at the quote-unquote winners of the Brown trade — the guys who project to receive bigger roles or enjoy a bump in playing time.
Payton Pritchard
Payton Pritchard saw his touches and usage take a leap last season as he stepped into a larger role with Jayson Tatum on the sidelines. The return was encouraging. Despite facing off against starting-level defenses for more than half the season, and seeing his overall attempts jump by roughly three per night, Pritchard’s efficiency held pretty steady.
His three-point percentage dropped to 37.7%, down from 40.7% the previous year, when he only started three games. His two-point percentage dropped by roughly nine percentage points, down from 64.2% to 56.1%.
When you ramp up a player's touches, alter their role so shots come in new ways and from new spots on the floor, add more playmaking to their workload, and ramp their minutes to career-high levels, a dip in efficiency is to be expected. The fact that the dip was so minuscule should be encouraging heading into the new season.
After all, Pritchard will now be operating in a rotation that has Tatum’s gravity and passing back. He’s going to get easier looks. His playmaking load might shade down a touch, and his catch-and-shoot attempts will likely increase.
Do I think the talk about Pritchard becoming Boston’s version of Jalen Brunson is warranted? Probably not. Brunson is who Brunson is for a reason.
However, I think that in a Tatum-centric offense, with less iso ball and a smaller focus on attacking the mid-range, defenses are going to be spaced out more, and that’s where Pritchard can cook. His speed will allow him to penetrate on drives, his interior scoring will generate kick-out opportunities, and his serious three-ball threat will force teams to adjust their pick-up points.
I can see Pritchard eating some of the shots that have been vacated by Brown’s departure, along with a sliver of the touches, too — he was already third in touches per game last season, with 68.9. Maybe that edges closer to the 70 mark this year.
At the top end of the roster, excluding Tatum, of course, I think Pritchard is the player who gets the biggest jump in role following Brown’s exit.
The Young Wings
Hugo Gonzalez
Last season, Brown spent 64% of his minutes playing at the three. George will undoubtedly fill that void when healthy. However, I’m expecting Boston to manage George’s minutes closely, likely holding him out on back-to-backs, and potentially holding him to a strict minutes restriction through the season.
Given what we saw from Hugo during Summer League, it’s fair to assume Boston is slowly exploring his potential as an on-ball creator. While I don’t expect to see Hugo be force-fed some on-ball creation reps this season, I do think that his development is trending in that direction.
With Brown no longer on the roster, Hugo could see his minutes jump when George is off the floor or out of the rotation. For now, Hugo’s role will likely remain the same: hustle, play solid defense and continue developing his shot off the catch. The potential for extra playing time will only help expedite those developments.
Still, Brown’s departure will undoubtedly cause somewhat of a vacuum, and given how highly the front office appears to rate Hugo, it’s logical to expect him to be put in a position to soak up some of the minutes and second-unit touches that Brown leaves behind.
Jordan Walsh
Much for the same reasons as Hugo. Walsh is fresh off signing a three-year $15 million contract extension to remain with the Celtics.
While I don’t see Walsh being given as much rope as Hugo, primarily due to Hugo projecting to have a higher ceiling, I still think Walsh will get a noticeable bump in minutes.
If Walsh has worked on his perimeter shooting, or even his control when getting downhill, then perhaps his usage will experience a slight uptick when he’s on the court. But, for the most part, I’d expect to see Walsh playing a similar role to last season, just with some additional on-court frequency.
Baylor Scheierman
In terms of secondary creation load, I think Scheierman is going to be the guy to fill the gap in the upcoming season. When Tatum and Brown were both healthy, Tatum would often have his minutes staggered, allowing him to lead the second unit.
With Tatum now the clear-cut spearhead, Boston will need multiple guys to step up when Tatum sits, and the bench rotation is tasked with keeping things honest. Sure, when George is healthy, he’ll likely lead the second unit…But in those stretches where he isn’t on the floor, or is watching in street clothes, Boston will need guys to stand tall.
Mike Conley will undoubtedly have a role to play as far as half-court creation is concerned. Nevertheless, Scheierman has the skill set, the passing ability and the self-creation to step up as a secondary or tertiary creator for bursts throughout a game.
Out of all of Boston’s young wings, Scheierman is the guy I feel like has the most polish on-ball. He looks confident and has shown flashes of being able to run the PnR. Whether he can find cutters on the move or create high-level passing angles will be something we’ll have to learn on the fly. Still, between him and Hugo, when the need arises, the Celtics should feel confident that they have two guys who can absorb touches with a level of regularity.
Derrick White
When I think of Derrick White’s role in the post-Jaylen Brown Celtics, I keep coming back to this comment from Brian Windhorst.
“They’re not arguing who’s the better player tonight or even in this playoff series,” Windhorst said during a recent episode of the ‘Shump Street Podcast.’ “When they say value, they’re looking at what a player’s production is versus how much he costs. The Celtics were a better team this year with Derrick White on the court versus Jaylen Brown…You can debate that and say that that’s just not true. And I’m not defending their side. I’m not trying to say I agree. The numbers that they have say that when Derrick White played, and Jaylen Brown played, they were better with Derrick White; that Derrick White defensively had an elite season. He was first-team all-defense, and that he cost $20 million less! So the word value means a different thing to your average fan.”
Last season, White put up a team-high 77.8 touches per game. With Tatum back and George hopefully healthy, White’s touches should regress to the mean. As such, his shot diet should also go back to normal, meaning more attempts off the catch, less off the bounce, and a weaker defensive presence due to the gravity around him.
Assuming all of this is somewhat true, White should be primed for a bounce-back season. If so, expect to be having discussions surrounding his All-Star candidacy in January and early February.
Without Brown, White will likely be tasked with being Boston’s secondary creator and, at times, scoring threat. George’s presence means that White isn’t stepping into a second-option role. He will, however, straddle that line, oftentimes sliding into the usage rate befitting such a role.
For all of Brown’s flaws as a playmaker, he reliably ate touches, especially last season. Ensuring the ball finds its way into more playmaking hands now that Brown is no longer on the roster will be key. Fortunately, a lot of the Celtics' top players are capable of self-creation and creation for others.
I also think George’s passing will be better than expected, but that’s neither here nor there.
Wrapping it up
I’ve purposely omitted including Tatum in this list. I’m choosing to look forward, and calling Tatum a clear-cut winner — while true — is feeding into the discourse that’s currently dominating the Celtics social media spaces.
Overall, though, Brown’s departure will mean wider roles for multiple guys. If they can make the most of those roles, then Boston will be well positioned to continue moving forward and developing from within.
Losing Brown undoubtedly hurt. However, with the move confirmed, it’s time we start looking ahead. That’s exactly what I’ve tried to do today. There are lots of reasons to be excited for the next few years.