5 X-Factors Heading Into Game 1

Anything can happen in a playoff series...

When I sat down to write this, we were exactly 8 hours away from the scheduled start time of Boston’s opening playoff game against the Philadelphia 76ers. Honestly, that start time is perfect, well, at least for me.

Tip-off will be shortly after 6 pm over here in the UK. Just after 1 pm for those of you lucky enough to reside in or around the Boston area. Even earlier, if you’re living out West, you're likely soaking up the sun every day.

Earlier this week, we looked at the potential threat Philly could pose, along with areas the Boston Celtics could look to exploit. That piece was stat-heavy. Predominantly because those numbers told the story far better than my limited Sixers consumption ever could have.

Now that we know what the numbers are telling us, the natural next step is to start exploring each team’s potential X-Factors heading into the series.

Before we do that, though, I wanted to plug yesterday’s podcast where Billy Calabrese and I worked through both teams’ rotations to see where the Celtics positional advantages lie.

To keep things nice and simple, I’m going to work through five potential X Factors. This isn’t an exhaustive list. Both teams will have plenty of wrinkles and schemes to throw at each other as the series plays out.

However short-lived it might be.

X Factor 1: Luka Garza Might Be Ready

I’m at the point where I wonder whether Luka Garza is a better fit for the Celtics bench unit than Nikola Vucevic. Garza has more experience with the current roster and has earned an opportunity to shine in the postseason.

Furthermore, Vucevic hasn’t looked great since being acquired at the Feb. 5 trade deadline. Ok, part of that was due to a 14-game absence due to a finger injury, yet the other part is that Vucevic is shooting 34% from deep in a Celtics jersey.

Against the Sixers, who will predominantly be playing a drop defensive scheme, Boston can really take advantage of their five-out spacing. If Vucevic struggles to see his perimeter looks drop, and isn’t providing much as a creation hub or screener, Joe Mazzulla could turn to Garza.

Not only is Garza shooting the rock at a 43.3% clip this season, but he’s also emerged as an elite screener and offensive rebounder. Considering the Sixers’ struggles on the defensive glass, a big man rotation of Neemias Queta and Garza could put serious pressure on the Sixers while also allowing the Celtics to dominate the tempo and flow of the game.

Garza won’t have the experience that Vucevic brings, but his hard-nosed style of play and flurry of scoring moves could give Andre Drummond and Adem Bona fits. I could legitimately see him being a difference maker, especially when it comes to creating separation for shooters in the PnR and on pin-downs or flares.

X Factor 2: What Version of Paul George Will We Get?

The version of Paul George we see during this series could indicate whether the Sixers can hang around beyond five games or not. When the Sixers moved to acquire George during the summer of 2024, they were doing so on the back of a stellar year from the veteran forward.

Unfortunately, PG hasn’t been able to replicate that success in Philly. In fact, in two seasons, he’s only suited up for 78 games — just 4 more than his final year with the LA Clippers.

Here is where I would usually write “at his best" and then go on to list the undoubted talent PG has, and where his skills can make the most impact. However, after seven seasons of limited playing time — with the exception of his standout 2023-24 season when he was heading into free agency (weird, right?) — we’ve seldom seen George at his best.

Honestly, it’s hard to project what “his best” would actually look like now.

Still, if PG’s current best is even 80% of his prime, he is still talented enough to make this a legitimate series. He might not be as quick as he once was, but he still has all (well, most) of the tools to be an elite wing defender. His shooting stroke hasn’t gone anywhere, either.

If George is locked in, the Celtics will have a legitimate three-headed monster to deal with once you factor in Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. If he’s not, then he will be nothing more than a high-level rotation player taking home max-level money.

Ideally, we see George roll back the years and remind everyone why he was such a feared talent during his prime. It’s better for us, it’s better for the Celtics, and it’s most certainly better for the Sixers. After all, the bigger test Philly can pose Boston now, the more prepared they’ll be when they face the New York Knicks in the second round.

Side Note: There is also the subplot of having a Tatum vs. Paul George series. Tatum historically ups his game when facing off against George, and given his current shooting struggles, this series could be what ignites a spark within him to find some consistency. If that happens, WATCH OUT.

X Factor 3: Rookie on Rookie Crime

I’m not expecting Hugo Gonzalez to get loads of playing time during the postseason. When writing out my eight-man rotation, I’ve got him on the outside looking in…

Guards: Derrick White, Payton Pritchard

Wings: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Baylor Scheierman, Sam Hauser

Bigs: Neemias Queta, Nikola Vucevic

I’ve got Garza and Hugo as joint ninth in the rotation, meaning either could be elevated into playing time depending on the current situation. Maybe, on the rare occasion, both will be called upon — and we’re not talking about garbage time, either.

Yet, Hugo’s size, defensive instincts and speed feel like they could have a legitimate role to play in this series. Especially if Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes and Maxey are finding ways to penetrate at will.

Hugo’s defensive attributes could be key to slowing down the Sixers; he’s versatile enough to guard down, big enough to be physically imposing and would probably take some form of joy in hounding down Philly’s biggest scoring threats, whether it be via a rotation, switch, straight matchup or even in the rearview.

In Hugo, the Celtics have a relentless defender with a high motor and plenty of long-term upside. I’m not saying he could completely lock down Philly’s guard trio, but he could certainly fluster them for stretches if given the opportunity.

It’s also worth noting that Hugo has spent 49.8% of his defensive minutes being matched up with guards this season (22.9% on point guards and 26.9% on shooting guards). Therefore, he’s already used to the trials that come with trying to slow down NBA-level ball-handlers and off-ball threats.

I wouldn’t expect Hugo to get the assignment straight away — although I wouldn’t be shocked if he did — but, if Philly’s guard rotation gets hot, or is finding consistent success, Hugo should be a consideration.

X Factor 4: The Top Two

Ok, this one’s a given, but I’d be remiss to exclude them. The Celtics are going to go as far as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can take them.

Not individually, as some sections of the media would have you believe.

Together.

Spin things any way you want, the fact is that Boston will be walking into Sunday’s game with the two best players in the series.

When you have the two clear-cut best talents on the same roster, with another player in the overall top five of the matchup pool (why hello, Derrick White), then you’re positioned perfectly for success.

The Sixers will not only have to figure out ways to shut the star duo down, but they’ll also have to navigate the spacing their presence creates and the gravity that it puts on the defense. If Philly can’t deal with the gaps Boston’s roster will naturally generate, they’re going to have a hard time defending as a team, and that’s a tough reality to face heading into game one.

X Factor 5: The Coaching Battle

Is Nick Nurse a better coach than Mike Brown? Quin Snyder? J.B. Bickerstaff? Kenny Atkinson? Jamahl Mosley?

I’d argue yes. He’s a championship-winning coach with decades of experience around the world — including my hometown of Birmingham, UK — where he led the now-defunct Birmingham Bullets back in the 90s (1995-1997), winning a chip in 1996.

So, operating under that assumption, Joe Mazzulla will face arguably his toughest coaching battle of any playoff series outside an NBA Finals run in this opening series.

Nurse is creative. He’s willing to adjust. And he won’t shy away from trying things to see what works.

Fortunately for the Celtics, Mazzulla has proven himself to be one of the better, more innovative coaches in the NBA. He’s improved his in-game adjustments and has been a solid game-to-game adjustment maker since stepping into the lead role.

Still, the playoffs are where coaching decisions can have genuine ramifications — for the better or worse.

Any dilly-dallying on Mazzulla’s part will undoubtedly have a knock-on effect.

From defensive coverages, offensive adjustments, matchups, substitution patterns, and everything in between, Nurse and Mazzulla will be locked in a free-flowing chess battle. I’m expecting Mazzulla to come out on top, but the sideline duel will be one of the more fascinating subplots to this series, at least from where I’m sitting.

Now, it’s your turn. Let me know what or who you consider to be some of the potential X Factors heading into this opening round series! One honorable mention for me would be the Grimes vs. Pritchard battle of the Sixth Men. I think that will be a great matchup when/if those two are on the court together.