Control The Tempo

One more game, that's all the Celtics should need.

For the past two games, the Celtics have controlled the boards. And who controls the boards often controls the tempo.

If the Sixers aren’t getting as many live-ball rebounds, then they aren’t firing as many outlet passes. Fewer outlet passes means fewer transition opportunities for Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.

Fewer opportunities for the Sixers in transition means more half-court offense.

Boston excels when guarding in the half-court.

Ironically, things got worse for Philly when they added Joel Embiid back to the rotation. Adding the former MVP into the mix was supposed to supercharge the Sixers, making them a bigger threat.

Instead, Boston faces the lord of the unathletic. Embiid may as well have bellowed You. Shall. Not. Sprint. To his younger teammates. Because when Embiid is on the floor, his team’s offense flows through him.

For the Celtics, this was welcomed news. Granted, Embiid draws attention. He generates foul calls. He opens things up with his sheer presence on the floor.

What he doesn’t do, though, is play a style that’s conducive to transition-based basketball, and when you take away the open court, you lose a lot of the edge Maxey and Edgecombe bring to the table.

The Celtics will take that.

They’ll take Neemias Queta getting into foul trouble, as he has done throughout the series.

They’ll take Embiid initiating play via dribble hand-offs 10 seconds into the shot clock.

And they’ll take a more Paul George-heavy offense, at least this version of George.

If all of that means there will be less downhill play from Philly’s young guards, then Boston will welcome Embiid’s return with open arms.

Let’s be blunt. Embiid hasn’t scared me, worried me, or even concerned me in at least three years. George hasn’t been the player who won an All-Star selection in his last year with the LA Clippers since arriving in Philadelphia. Nick Nurse doesn’t have the deepest depth chart.

The Celtics are winning on almost every front. Jayson Tatum is playing inspired basketball. Jaylen Brown has been captain awesome all season. Baylor Scheierman, Luka Garza and Jordan Walsh have been reliable depth pieces off the bench.

Oh, and Payton Pritchard is him. You heard me, HIM.

The only area the Sixers have consistently found success is when they’re running the floor. If the Celtics don’t have time to get set, the Sixers have enough talent to punish them.

However, when you move Adem Bona and Andre Drummond to secondary and tertiary roles and begin playing through the five, that downhill game evaporates.

The numbers back this up, too. Here’s what Cleaning The Glass tells us about Philly’s transition offense this series (working in extrapolated points per 100)

In game 1, the Sixers were a +7.3

In game 2, the Sixers were a +3.1

In game 3, the Sixers were a +4.7

In game 4, the Sixers were a -1

Look at that swing.

The Sixers went from being a highly productive transition offense over the first three games to a below-average one on Sunday. The only thing that changed was the addition of Embiid.

Now, the Celtics will head into game five, in complete control of their opening round series, knowing that if Philly doesn’t figure out how to unleash Maxey and Edgecombe, they will be preparing for some additional rest before the second round.

Joe Mazzulla will be more than aware of the risk the Sixers pose. They’re fighting for their playoff lives.

However, if Nick Nurse can’t integrate Embiid in a way that fits what the team does best, the Sixers will be playing with one arm tied behind their back.

Times have changed. Maxey and Edgecombe need to run that show now.

However, even if the Sixers have figured that out, their current roster construction isn’t going to unlock the guard duo.

I called the Celtics in five before the series started. We’re at game five. My stance hasn’t changed.

Keep them bogged down in the halfcourt, allow them to run the offense through Embiid, dominate the boards, and set up a showdown with either the New York Knicks or Atlanta Hawks.

That’s the plan.

That’s the hope.

Who would have thought adding a former MVP back into the rotation could have spun things this far south?

Hopefully, that nose-dive lasts one game longer.