Prepping for the playoffs part 1: Philly
A deep dive into the Philadelphia 76ers through a Boston Celtics lense
Throughout this week, we’re going to be preparing for the playoffs. Right now, we don’t know who the Celtics are going to face. So, for today and tomorrow, we’ll be doing somewhat of a deep dive on both the Sixers and the Magic. Today, we start with…
A potential playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Which is nothing new for the Boston Celtics.
In fact, since the 2017-18 season — Tatum’s rookie year — the Celtics and Sixers have met in 16 postseason games.
Boston is 12-4 in those games.
First, the Celtics dispatched the duo of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in a gentleman’s sweep back in the 2018 Eastern Conference Semis, winning games 1,2,3 and 5. Fun fact, JJ Redick was a starter for Philly back then. Another fun fact: this was the same series as the confetti game.
Then Philly took a beating in the first round of the 2020 playoffs, losing four straight, with a series-high 106 points in game four.
Most recently, Boston and Philly dueled it out in the 2023 Eastern Conference semifinals. In fairness, the series went to 7 games, with Philly taking 3 wins — 66% of their entire postseason win total against Boston over the last damn near decade. Of course, the Celtics handled their business in game seven, holding Philly to 88 points in a do-or-die game.
Now, the Sixers face the Orlando Magic on Wednesday, in the hope of securing a win and booking a spot against Boston in the first round of the playoffs.
As a big fan of Cobra Kai and the Karate Kid franchise in general, I have only one thing to say…
Sixers Potential Playoff Rotation
Philly suffered a hammer blow before we even got to the playoffs. Joel Embiid could miss the entire first round after undergoing an appendectomy.
“It is a tough blow,” Sixers head coach Nurse said.
However, it’s not like the Sixers aren’t used to playing without their oft-injured former MVP. I mean, he’s only played in 38 games this season.
“They’ve played different stretches of the year without him,” Nurse said. “As far as what we do personnel-wise, we’ve got (Adem) Bona, we've got (Andre) Drummond, and we’ll use them both.”
Outside of Embiid, Philly should have the rest of their primary rotation available. Assuming Nurse sticks to an 8-man rotation, if they make it into the first round, it could look like this.
Guard: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes
Wing: Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jabari Walker, Justin Edwards
Big: Adem Bona, Andre Drummond
Dominick Barlow has also been a key member of the rotation. He could push Edwards or Walker for the spot, Nurse could rotate the three depending on matchups/matchup success, or he could go nine deep.
Sixers Biggest Strengths
I’ll be honest, looking at both the offensive and defensive numbers, the Sixers don’t have too many major strengths. They struggle scoring across all three levels and have problems generating reliable offense for decent stretches.
Downhill Pressure
One thing the Sixers do well is get downhill. With Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe operating as the starting backcourt, Nick Nurse has two high-level ball-handlers who can penetrate off the dribble, run the PnR, and attack the lanes with crisp movement.
When you factor in Paul George’s three-level scoring and the presence of both Bona and Drummond, who are both reliable rollers out of the PnR, the Sixers have plenty of weapons to pressure the rim. The same can be said of Kelly Oubre Jr., who is consistently underrated as an all-around talent.
Furthermore, during the offseason, one of Daryl Morey’s key focuses was adding some additional athleticism to the wing rotation.
“What I did not do well was make sure we have the youth and athleticism to get through the regular season and put us in that position,” Morey said in May last year. “That’s something we’ll do next year.”
He achieved that with the additions of Barlow, Walker and Edwards. All three are capable slashers and cutters who can punish a team for late or lax rotations.
Attacking Closeouts
As you can see in the stats above, the lone area where the Sixers rank highly for both offensive frequency and efficiency is the long mid-range. That’s most likely impacted by how the Sixers look to use their scorers when attacking closeouts.
Paul George is a reliable long mid-range threat. So is Kelly Oubre Jr. Both Edgecombe and Maxey can do some damage between the free-throw line and three-point line, too.
If the Sixers can get you in rotation, so that you’re flying out onto one of their shooters, they will likely find some success in working a one or two-dribble pull-up inside of the three-point line.
For a defense that is willing to scramble when in rotation, Boston will need to be cognizant of that as the series wears on. Although given how the Celtics like to send gap help, any adjustment to take those looks away doesn’t feel like they’d be too hard to come by.
Protecting the mid-range & Impacting threes
It’s easy to let these positional defensive numbers fool you into thinking the Sixers are a solid defensive team. However, their strongest defensive work happens in predominantly low-volume areas of the floor. They’re a middling team when it comes to impacting shots at the rim, and just outside of the top-10 in protecting the perimeter.
One thing Nurse’s team does well is bait teams into taking a high volume of threes per game. That’s why they rank 20th in the NBA for defensive three-point frequency. They’re fine with letting you get your shots up because they know they can impact them at a good-enough rate for it to be an effective strategy.
Unfortunately for them, most teams that try to do this against the Celtics wind up getting decimated. A Mazzulla-coached team isn’t going to turn down an invitation to let a three fly. However, they will allow you to try and bait them before making the extra read to turn a good shot into a great one.
Daring one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the NBA to let it fly would be a risky strategy.
Nevertheless, the Sixers could be effective in shutting down some of the Celtics mid-range game, predominantly in the short mid-range area, which has become a weapon for guys like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard this year.
However, that doesn’t solve the Jaylen Brown problem — as he’s been crushing it from all areas of the mid-range and could easily shift his shot profile slightly further toward the elbows or free-throw line extended.
Still, the Sixers have enough interior defense to be a problem for Boston’s mid-range offense, which has accounted for 32.9% of their total offense this season. It could be an area to view as a battleground, and one that I’d still take the Celtics to secure a victory in.
Areas for the Celtics to exploit
Ok, so we’ve seen what the Sixers do well, or at least well for them.
Now, let’s look at some of the ways the Celtics can exploit their current roster and overall system.
It all starts with punishing
Philly’s drop defense
Even if Embiid were healthy, the Sixers would predominantly run a drop defense. That’s where Drummond is most effective, and is arguably best suited for Bona, too — although he does have enough mobility to operate up to touch or in a limited switching system.
Still, when the Sixers turn to a drop coverage defense, which, given their player personnel, they will have to, the Celtics should have their way via a five-out offense.
Mazzulla can approach this in one of two ways, and he will likely do both.
He can either use Neemias Queta as a weakside five-man, providing facilitation as a screen and dribble hand-off threat before rolling toward the rim. Or, he can lean into Nikola Vucevic and/or Luka Garza due to their ability to consistently knock down shots from deep.
Either option will punish the Sixers for leaving their big so far back, especially if Neemy is utilized in the short-roll, or if Boston runs inverted PnR’s to get a mobile and explosive forward heading downhill (think Tatum or Brown).
If Nurse tries to counter this by having Drummond or Bona playing at the level of the screen, the Celtics can use their spacing to hunt mismatches. After all, Tatum loves to cook bigs on the perimeter. As Willie says in Friday, “That’s my pleasure.”
Adjusting to shoot from the corners
Throughout the season, the Celtics have done most of their perimeter shooting damage on non-corner threes.
As you can see here, the Celtics are 29th in the NBA for corner three-point frequency. So, it’s not a shot they lean into very much.
However, given the Sixers' success defending non-corner looks and their inability to limit downhill drives, leaning into a spray-based offense, looking for corner shooters to score off the catch, could be the ideal counter to how the Sixers defend the perimeter.
Now, I’m not saying the Celtics should change up their entire offensive process. They are who they are because of the habits they’ve formed throughout the year. However, as a reliable counter, which could force the Sixers to blink and adapt, wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, especially later in the series, such as game three or four.
I can see Sam Hauser and Baylor Scheierman having a field day with open catch-and-shoot threes out of the corner. The beauty is, the Celtics could also have guys like Brown or Tatum sinking off the wing to provide an easy release valve, and their gravity would open things up as the Sixers looked to tilt the floor.
It’s worth noting that while the Celtics don’t get too many corner threes up, they’re among the best in the league at converting those attempts, ranking fourth on 42.4% shooting.
Punish the rim
Another option Boston has is to gut test the Sixers. Sure, they’re younger, more explosive and have some big bodies in the paint, but can they stop Brown, Tatum, Neemy or even Hugo Gonzalez from pounding the paint and exploding at the rim?
The Celtics might be dead last in rim frequency this season, but they’re 2nd in FG% within four feet of the bucket.
Simply put, they’re restricted area assassins when they want to be.
I see no reason why Boston can’t use that to their advantage if they have a night where their shots aren’t falling from deep. Philly struggles to deter drives and ranks middle of the pack in impacting finishes around the cup.
It feels like this could be found money if the Celtics decide to embrace the suck and bang with the Sixers for a string of possessions on a night where their finesse isn’t getting things done.
Boston can also look to dominate on the glass. Even with Drummond, the Sixers have struggled as a defensive rebounding unit this season, ranking 18th in the NBA. With Garza, Neemy and Vucevic all reliable board eaters, the Celtics could cook as an offensive-rebounding unit looking to generate easy buckets at the rim.
Mazzulla will have plenty of options at his disposal if he chooses to attack the paint at times, and given how the Sixers have looked this year, they’ll struggle to find any reasonable answers on defense.
Who scares me?
This one is easy. Maxey and Edgecombe. We’ve seen firsthand how tough this duo can be to slow down. They’re tough shot makers, solid creators and have that blend of speed and strength that can cause nightmares for perimeter defenders.
I think both have the ability to have game-winning nights throughout a potential seven-game series. I just don’t think they’re enough to nullify what the Celtics have throughout the roster. Of course, I could be wrong here, as Maxey and Edgecombe are no joke.
George is another name I should probably fear. However, at this stage of his career, you find yourself wondering which version we’re going to get on any given night. That level of inconsistency has me moderately worried, but not to the same degree as Maxey and Edgecombe, who both bring it game in and game out.
They’re the foundation Philly should be building around moving forward.
Final thoughts
This is the Celtics series. If they face Philly, we can expect that 12-4 record to continue growing. The Sixers won’t be an easy out, but I struggle to see how they can beat Boston four out of seven times. They’re simply too limited on offense to be a realistic threat, so long as the Celtics shooting doesn’t vanish up to Moron Mountain for an entire series.
If I had to make a prediction, I’m giving this to the Celtics in 5.
A gentleman’s sweep.
If both Maxey and Edgecombe have themselves a game, then maybe this goes to six. But that’s a big maybe.
Tomorrow, we look at the Magic.