The pitfall of watching Summer League
And why a change in perspective fixes everything
I’m a firm believer in never buying high or selling low based on Summer League performances. It’s so easy to get swept up in a dominant night, or a week of struggles, and to then begin basing your expectations or evaluations of a player based on that limited data set.
Look at Baylor Scheierman’s struggles in Summer League last year. Coming in as a second-year player, he was expected to dominate for Boston. Instead, he struggled to hit the backside of a barn and was overall a net-neutral at best.
People were writing him off before the season had even begun.
How did that turn out?
Well, I think part of the reason so many Celtics fans are ok with the idea of trading Sam Hauser — one of the best sharpshooters in the NBA — is the emergence of Scheierman. Not only did he shoot 39.9% from deep last season, but he also flashed legitimate upside as an on-ball creator and thrived as both an isolation and team defender.
Yet, if you had asked us what to expect from Scheierman in the gap between Summer League and the start of the new season, the answer you received would have been miles away from what we actually saw.
There’s a good reason why Summer League is an imperfect indicator of future success at the NBA level, too: it’s a developmental tournament, where players are being tasked with a range of different roles and/or goals.
There’s a reason why those who dominate get shut down early — because when you’re dominating, you’re not learning much — instead, you’re reinforcing a skill set that’s already second nature.
That leads us to this year’s Sin City Celtics.
Look at this quote from Chris Cenac following Boston’s loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night.
“That’s something that they’ve been preaching to me since I’ve gotten here that I need to do,” rookie Cenac said when asked about recording 9 blocks in 3 Summer League games. “And I’m a player that’s going to do whatever it takes, whatever the organization needs me to do, so that’s something I’m emphasizing in my game while I’m on the court.”
It would have been easy for Cenac to come into Summer League and lean on his athleticism and mid-range game. Where would be the benefit in that, though?
The whole point is to work on your game, develop aspects that will translate to the role you’ll be asked to fill, and then, over multiple years, begin rounding out to become a more complete player.
Of course, that doesn’t mean you ignore your strengths. Just last night, we saw Cenac hit this nice jumper from the nail.
For Cenac, the growth will come in continuing to get reps at the rim, where he’s looked shaky. By developing his timing when rotating over to help, working on his perimeter shooting and improving his overall screening ability to create additional space for the ball-handler.
When watching through his Summer League tape so far, you can see those are all areas he’s being asked to work on, along with some delay actions due to their importance to Boston’s overall system.
From there, you can sprinkle in his off-the-dribble game, his downhill drives and his vertical spacing.
You work on multiple aspects at once, allowing for continued growth while ensuring the defenses you’re facing can’t hone in on any one specific thing.
The same can be said for Hugo Gonzalez.
Sure, his shooting hasn’t been there, but that is in part due to the role he’s being asked to play.
Ask yourself, has Hugo ever had this level of usage rate? Touches? Defensive attention?
The context of the role he’s being asked to fill, and the long-term development these reps will help create, are both key when dissecting his production so far.
Even when he was with Real Madrid, I doubt Hugo was tasked with running the pick-and-roll as a ball-handler or creating for himself off the bounce. The reason it’s looked clunky is that that’s what progression looks like.
If he were already smooth in those aspects of his game, we wouldn’t be seeing such a focus placed on those reps.
There have been some bright spots, though. Take this pick-and-roll action from Hugo against Charlotte. He runs the action along with Dillon Mitchell — who has also been impressive and is clearly working on his perimeter game — drives the lane as he comes off the screen, draws two near the baseline and then hits the nifty wrap-around pass for Mitchell to sink the easy bucket.
With such a wide-ranging role, it makes sense that Hugo’s shot is struggling. We saw Derrick White navigate similar struggles last season.
Shots come from different places, in different ways and against different levels of defensive attention. It takes thousands of reps for those things to become comfortable.
You’ve got to trust the development plan the coaching staff has in place.
There’s also the flip side of all this.
Summer League is also about learning what you can’t do.
We discuss skill sets for a reason. Milos Uzan has looked great as a speedy playmaking guard. However, he doesn’t have the size to be a reliable switch defender on the perimeter. So, the Celtics will likely test him out there in Summer League, not necessarily to develop that aspect of his game, but to gauge his limitations within that role.
Everything is about collecting and measuring the data that these reps provide.
So, even when the Celtics stink the place up, like they did last night in the second quarter, there’s an upside from a ‘big picture’ perspective.
Summer League is great. It’s a ton of fun and an awesome way to break up the lengthy offseason. However, it is not an evaluative space for those outside of an organization.
Instead, it’s a developmental tournament that often generates unfair hype or negativity for a string of young or unproven talents who are either taking their first steps into the professional game or looking to establish themselves with another contract.
Either way, I try not to put too much stock into the performance and instead take note of the roles guys are being placed in. There’s a lot more to learn that way, especially in terms of how a team views that player fitting into its system further down the line.
To your point, summer league shooting percetnages have virtually no correlation to regular-season numbers.
Activity rates, however, like assists, 3PA, and rebounds, do:
https://thef5.substack.com/p/summer-league-stats-you-can-trust
And in that regard, Hugo's summer has looked somewhat promising!
Great points. Thanks.