The Celtics Won Without The Math
On a night where the perimeter shooting was cold, the Celtics adjusted on the fly
What does it mean that the math team won without the math?
Sit with that for a second.
The Boston Celtics have built an identity around floor-spacing, possession victories and winning the numbers game.
High-quality three-point volume is the foundation of Mazzulla-ball.
So when they shoot under 30% from deep, they should lose, right?
Well…maybe…but not so much these days.
Boston is 7-11 in games where it’s shot 30% or under from three this season. Not great — a .39 win percentage, but when compared to previous seasons, it’s an uptick in success.
2024-25: .31 with 9 losses and 4 wins
2023-24: .333 with 8 losses and 4 wins
2022-23: .333 with 12 losses and 6 wins.
This season, despite being arguably the weakest team Mazzulla has coached — or at least that was the narrative coming in — Boston has its highest win rate in sub-30% three-point shooting nights of Mazzulla’s tenure so far.
That seventh win came on Easter Sunday, with a 115-101 win over the Toronto Raptors. The same Raptors who currently project as being a potential first-round matchup.
Beating the Raptors isn’t anything new for the Celtics. They hold a 17-3 record over their last 20 meetings. Sunday’s game was the fifth time Boston has shot 30% or under from deep during the 20-game span, going back to Ime Udoka’s lone season with the franchise.
The Celtics are 4-1 in those games.
Last night, the story fell into two chapters: the team’s work in attacking hard hedges on the pick-and-roll, and its ability to get downhill on drives.
Trimming the hedge
Neemias Queta ended Sunday afternoon with 18 points to his name — good for his fifth-highest-scoring game of the season. In the first few minutes alone, Queta had six of Boston’s eight points, as the team punished how Toronto looked to shut down the PnR.
Take note of how both PnR defenders stick with Jaylen Brown. They’re heading to take away the threat of his drive. As a result, Neemy is free to slip his screen, blowing open the defensive coverage and giving him an open line to the rack.
Credit to Brown, his hesitation after starting to drag out his dribble created the ideal passing lane to find Neemy on the roll, forcing Jakob Poeltl to try and recover in hopes of contesting Neemy’s shot.
Update: he didn’t get there in time.
This was the first instance of how the Celtics attacked Toronto’s hedge.
It became a sub-plot for most of the game.
Different quarter, same principle. As soon as Queta veer screens1 for Jayson Tatum, the defense hard hedges out to the ball, leaving Neemy wide open to slip the screen and begin rolling to the basket.
Credit Toronto here, Brandon Ingram helps off the weakside corner to tag Neemy, but by then, the Celtics’ big man has already sealed Ingram on his hips and is well-positioned to receive the pass from Tatum. Like Brown in the first clip, Tatum has dragged out his dribble to create the passing angle.
Here’s a different way things can look when a team is overreacting to defending the PnR, while the offensive team is struggling from deep.
Here, the Raptors switch this initial action, in what seems like it was intended to be a switch-and-recover to avoid a mismatch. Nikola Vucevic’s screen takes the on-ball defender out of the action for a beat, leading to two defenders closing in on Payton Pritchard.
Vucevic rolls to the paint, creating somewhat of a clunky logjam in the restricted area. Yet, even with the veteran big man hovering around the rim, the defense stays locked in on Pritchard.
The play ends up being a little ugly, but it still results in two points off of a PnR roll action.
What does this tell us?
When perimeter shots aren’t falling at a high rate, finding ways to attack gaps in the defensive coverage is key to generating sustainable interior offense. Boston has enjoyed multiple games this season where they’ve dismantled a hedging defense, so it was easy for them to slip into this form of attack.
Swerve When I Drive
Yes, this title is a wrestling reference. It is my other “sporting” love, after all.
According to Cleaning The Glass, 34% of Boston’s offense came within 4 feet of the rim against Toronto, with the team converting at an 86.2% clip. At the time of writing, NBA Stats hasn’t updated to show the volume of drives, but I’m assuming it’s a healthy enough amount.
The fact remains that the Celtics no longer feel the need to try to overcorrect when shots aren’t dropping from deep.
Instead, they keep within their usual volume of perimeter shots to keep the defense honest and maximize their looks at the rim.
Take Brown, for instance; 10 of his 11 buckets came on the interior, almost exclusively off drives.
A key reason why it’s important to keep firing away from deep on tough shooting nights is that it ensures the defense doesn’t adjust to taking away the paint. The Celtics are 3rd in the NBA for 3-point frequency and 10th for accuracy — if they’re going to take them, you have to respect the threat.
So, when Brown was bringing the ball up in the above clip, the Raptors were spaced out, with a high pick-up point, primed to defend the perimeter. However, Brown is among the best drivers in the league.
A quick tween-tween crossover, a burst of speed followed by a deceleration step, and boom, Brown is at the rim, with enough space to create the bucket.
That’s how you counter a defense early, especially one that’s expecting another deep-range bomb.
This clip sees Brown do his best Ricky Bobby impression, hitting his man with a little Shake…And…Bake!
The premise is the same, although in this instance, it’s more of an isolation bucket against a full set half-court defense.
No matter.
Brown comes off a little flip action with Payton Pritchard, drives, stops, spins (and breaks ankles), then an easy finish at the rim. Another high-quality look against a defense that has been spread out by a 4-out, 1-in offensive setup from Boston.
It’s key to note that placing Queta in the dunker spot provides vertical spacing, which is why the defense is as spread out as it is.
Same principle here. The Celtics are in a five-out2 offense with Queta operating at the delay3. Boston looks to run a standard Zoom action, with Sam Hauser more of a brush screener than a pin-down screener.
Tatum recognizes the defense loading up at the hand-off spot, so he rejects the DHO and 45 cuts4 before receiving the pass and finishing at the rim.
Again, working out of the perimeter — PnR, flares, delay, etc — is a great way to use the threat of a three, even when the shots aren’t falling. Boston is fortunate enough to have multiple high-level slashers, cutters and drivers in the rotation, which is why they found success when pounding the ball inside.
Playoff Perfect
We’ve all said it at one point or another: shooting a high volume of threes is great, but shot variance will always play a factor. There will be nights when shots just don’t fall, regardless of how open you are, how well they were manufactured or how much of an elite shooter is taking the shot.
At times, the Celtics have fallen into the trap of trying to shoot their way out of rough spells. Sometimes it works, but usually, they start forcing things, and it goes from bad to worse.
Lately, though, they’ve adjusted in approach, leaned into their other strengths and found ways to win (at least more frequently than before) despite their shooting struggles.
When the playoffs roll around, and we’re watching a game essentially every other day, tough shooting nights are a potential hazard. So, seeing the Celtics get some more interior reps against Toronto certainly wasn’t a bad thing.
The question is, does this make them ready for what's to come in the playoffs? At least in terms of the potential in-game adjustments they’ll need to make on the fly?
I’m not saying yes, but I’m not not saying yes, either.
A veer screen is an off-ball screen into an on-ball screen, or vice versa. In this instance, Queta set the flare screen for Tatum (off-ball) then veered into the (on-ball screen) — usually, a veer action happens with screens for two individual players (like Queta could off-ball screen Brown, veer screen Tatum)
All five players are situated in spots around the perimeter, no one inside of the three-point line.
A fancy way of saying the 5 (Queta) has the ball at the top of the perimeter, with the rest of the team spacing on the three-point line.
A diagonal cut from the wing/slot, often at a 45-degree angle