Celtics Mailbag: The Cold Shooting Problem, Hauser's Role & More

Answering your questions for the first mailbag of the season!

Happy Monday!

Yesterday, I put out a mailbag request and got some awesome responses. Let’s dive in.

💬 Oladandintheway asked: How often will they go cold? They shot badly in their first 3 games and looked terrible. Then DW, PP, and even AS, shot well, especially from three. Last time they missed 16 3s in a row. Everyone went cold. How often will that happen? They don’t have the height to win unless they shoot at least 35% from 3.

🗣️ This is hard to predict. The basketball Gods giveth and taketh away at will. However, we can look at the data to establish a baseline.

Since Joe Mazzulla took the hot seat in the 2022-23 season, and excluding the current season for a moment, the Celtics have had a total of 39 games where they’ve shot under 30% from three.

Crucially, if we move the threshold to 35%—a number Oladandintheway mentioned—they’ve had a total of 97 games shooting under that mark over those three seasons.

In those 97 games where Boston has shot under 35% from deep, they’ve won a total of 51. That’s a win percentage of 52.6%.

We can all agree that the most significant difference over those past three seasons is that the Celtics were a better team than the one currently constructed. There was more shooting around the perimeter. Jayson Tatum was healthy and a top-7 guy in the league. And, for two of those 3 seasons, Kristaps Porzingis was spacing the middle of the floor.

Now let’s look at the current season, well, the 25 games they’ve played so far.

We’re just over a quarter of the way through the season, and the Celtics have had 12 games where they’ve shot under 35% from deep — a staggering 48% of their games so far. The median number of games under that three-point threshold over the past three seasons is 34.

So, based on the amount of games played so far, the median of the past three years, and Boston’s current rate of cold shooting nights from the perimeter, a safe projection would be that they shoot under 35% from deep in approximately 39 games this season.

Assuming they keep their 25% win rate from this season, they would end the year with 10 wins in those games.

Those numbers are a tough pill to swallow. The good news is that the Celtics could regress to the median. The bad news is that they’re still losing their “cold” shooting games at a much higher rate than in previous years.

Winning the math game is essential to the current roster maintaining its momentum.

💬Scott Rebhun: Lots of talk of trading Simons for understandable reasons. But that would leave them with only White and Pritchard at guard. Or the very inexperienced Schierman who is playing more forward. So what would they do at the guard position?

🗣️ Honestly, I think this is an under-discussed byproduct of trading Simons. The easy answer is that they might get a guard in a return trade package. But, if we’re being honest with ourselves, the most logical outcome is that Simons is flipped in a deal for a big man — starter or depth piece.

The Celtics do have Max Shulga, but he’s not exactly dominating the G League in his rookie season. He’s averaging 14.8 points, 5.8 assists and 4.6 rebounds per night on 38.8% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from deep.

Not exactly the ideal replacement for Simons when you’re looking for a scoring punch off the bench. However, Simons isn’t exactly operating at human torch levels of offense either, is he?

Another option would be to scour the free agent market. After all, the Celtics currently have an open roster spot, and assuming they don’t bring back additional players in a Simons trade (like a 2-for-1 or 3-for-2) they will still have room to add someone on a short-term deal.

Some potential free agent guard names are:

• Ben Simmons

• Cameron Payne

• Alec Burks

If the Celtics wanted a swing at a younger talent, they could look at:

• Jalen Hood-Schifino

• Jaden Springer (again)

Or, the Celtics could look to make a secondary trade to add a new guard option.

If none of those options played out, but the Celtics did move on from Simons, Mazzulla could limit the lack of guard depth by rebuilding his rotation. Moving Jaylen Brown down to the 2, with Walsh, Minott, and a big man would be one way of fixing things.

That would give Boston a starting lineup of Derrick White, Brown, Minott, Walsh, Big Man

When/if Jayson Tatum return(s) this season, he would slot into the four and one of Walsh or Minott would move back to the bench.

There’s no easy option. However, if a viable deal for Simons arises, and the Celtics get another piece to their puzzle in return, I wouldn’t be mad at them signing off on a deal.

💬 John: Holdover players from last year’s team that were in the rotation have had to adjust without JT’s presence. Pritchard and White had slow starts and have found their way IMO. What is your opinion of Sam Hauser’s play so far? Is he missing JT more than others? I keep hoping for a breakout series of games from him, but it hasn’t happened yet.

🗣️ Over the past three seasons, only Payton Pritchard has found Sam Hauser with more assists than Jayson Tatum, per PBP Stats.

Unfortunately for Hauser, Pritchard’s role has significantly changed this season and Tatum is out of the rotation. That’s a significant offense that’s vanished for a sharpshooter who has been assisted on 93.5% of his made shots over the past three seasons.

Unfortunately for Hauser, he’s not getting the same quality of looks as in previous years. The floor spacing is different, the shot generation has been altered, and he’s struggling to convert at his usual clip as a result.

I don’t expect him to remain mired in the sub-35% category all season. However, I’m not sure if we see him crack the 40% conversion rate mark, either. Not unless Tatum returns and is firing off passes at an elite level.

Hauser isn’t the guy you ask to create his own shot. He’s the guy you create shots for and watch him knock them down. Mazzulla has done well in figuring out multiple issues around the roster this season, but one of his bigger tests will be finding ways to maximize Hauser’s shooting ability — especially if Boston wants to avoid more sub-35% three-point shooting nights for the reasons outlined above.

So, while I don’t think Hauser will have a breakout, I do believe he will regress toward the mean at some point this year, although that’s more on positioning him for success than him adjusting.

💬Chris Figee: If and when JT comes back….how and where would you want to strengthen this team to make it a contender? Not so much looking for names, but for skill types...role…to turn this roster + JT into East contention again..?

🗣️ I came into the season really low on Neemias Queta. I was wrong there. He’s proven himself to be a solid NBA-level big man. However, I still think he would be better served with the second unit. Not because he isn’t capable, but because he’s still developing and isn’t ready to anchor a contending team.

So, the first area to improve would be the center position. We’ve seen how Tatum performs when paired with lob threats — think back to his time playing with Robert Williams. And we’ve also seen him share the court with floor-spacing fives.

I prefer the latter. Tatum’s at his best when the floor is spaced, and he can make reads off the catch, off the bounce or on the move. With an interior big, the defense is a little more crowded, which could force him to do more work on the perimeter and sometimes that settles him into bad habits.

I’d also like to see Brad Stevens land a defensive-minded guard. Tatum and Brown have always had one of those in the rotation, be it Marcus Smart or Jrue Holiday. You could argue that Derrick White fits into that role, but ideally, a defensive specialist would make sense, especially if Pritchard is ultimately moved back to the bench after this season.

From there, I think it’s about surrounding the roster with the right type of veterans — 3-and-d, depth pieces at key positions — and ensuring the younger guys still have room to continue their development with sizeable roles.

I don’t think this team is too far away from being a contender again. The hard part will be finding the right big man without gutting the current roster to get him through the door.

💬FT: What is going on with Boucher? He’s the only one who hardly ever plays leaving me wondering why? Would he or wouldn’t he spark the team when they have off days shooting?

Honestly? Your guess is as good as mine. I came into the season expecting Boucher to be a big part of the rotation, especially after his preseason performances. Instead, he’s sat out 17 games so far.

The last time we saw Boucher was when Queta got hurt against the Orlando Magic. That was the same game Mazzulla began leaning on a small-ball rotation off the bench (which we’ve touched on a few times in recent weeks).

I think that Boucher’s limitations aren’t easily covered by the guys on the roster, which makes it hard to find a sustainable role for him. Furthermore, Jordan Walsh, Josh Minott and Hugo Gonzalez are all outplaying him and have far more upside due to their developmental potential, which in turn could raise their trade value down the line.

Boucher only signed a one-year deal with the Celtics. He could be a makeweight in a trade, or he can continue being a veteran presence at the end of the bench. Although I’m not sure he’s getting the role he thought he was signing up for.

In terms of being a shooting spark: it’s possible, but unlikely from deep. He’s a career 33.6% shooter from deep and has never broken the four attempts per game mark — which might be another reason why he’s not getting much burn.

I think Boucher, at this point, is a depth piece who can be called on in a pinch, but is unlikely to emerge as a key rotation piece this season, unless injuries force Mazzulla’s hand.

That’s it for this week’s mailbag. Tomorrow we’ll dive into tonight’s game against the Detroit Pistons!