Prepping for the playoffs, part 2: Orlando
A deep dive into the Orlando Magic through a Boston Celtics lense
Yesterday, we took a deep dive into the Philadelphia 76ers ahead of their play-in game against the Orlando Magic. Today, we’re continuing to prepare for all outcomes by diving into the Magic.
Then, later tonight, we will get our answer on who the Celtics will be facing in the first round, and we can start peeling some layers off.
Unlike the Sixers, the Celtics don’t have a huge history with the Magic during the Jaylen Brown & Jayson Tatum era. In fact, last season’s first-round matchup was the first time the modern-day Celtics had faced off against Orlando in a postseason setting.
As a quick reminder, the Celtics won that series 4-1.
Magic’s Potential Playoff Rotation
Franz Wagner’s fitness will be a major factor in the Magic’s ability to make an impact in the postseason, assuming they can overcome the Sixers. Wagner has had a difficult season, following a high ankle sprain that led to two false starts when trying to return to the rotation throughout the regular season.
In total, Wagner has played in 34 games this season. As we saw during Boston’s final game of the season, Wagner is still struggling, especially in terms of conditioning.
“I’m trying to push through. Get as much time out there as I can. I feel all right,” Wagner said after losing to the Celtics on Sunday. “It’s frustrating [not playing his full minutes]. But there’s only one way to get past that, and that’s to push through it. I want to do it the smart way. But to go to that point the smart way, that’s all I can do.”
Orlando will need Wagner if they’re going to stand any chance against the Celtics, especially with the way Paolo Banchero has been playing this year.
With Wagner’s minutes and potential availability in the air, he will be the biggest X Factor for the Magic, both tonight vs. Philly and moving forward should his team win.
Here’s a guess at how the Magic’s playoff rotation could look.
Guard: Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black
Wings: Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane and Tristan Da Silva
Bigs: Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze
That would give Jamahl Mosley a well-balanced 8-man rotation. He would then have rookies Jase Richardson and Noah Penda to provide youth and skill on the wings, while Jett Howard could certainly use the developmental boost postseason basketball can offer.
Magic’s Biggest Strengths
Protecting the three-point line
One thing Orlando does well is protect the perimeter. They rank fourth in opponent three-point frequency from three-point range this season, while also holding them to 35.7% shooting — 12th in the NBA.
When facing the Celtics, one of the best assets a team can have is the ability to run shooters off the line. Orlando doesn’t bait you into shots, nor does it live with mediocre looks. Instead, Mosley has them trying to shut everything down, or at least make life as difficult as possible when trying to get shots off.
It’s worth noting that Orlando thrived in this exact same area last season. And while the Celtics walked away with a 4-1 series win, nothing came easy. In fact, as each game of that series went by, the Celtics’ three-point attempts gradually went down, with the exception of a minor spike in game three.
Note that the percentages in the above image are frequency, not efficiency.
If the Magic can do that again, Boston will need to lean on its interior scoring, both at the rim and in the mid-rage as a way of countering what the Magic throw at them in terms of three-point defense.
Fortunately, the Celtics have been a solid offensive unit when cooking in the mid-range this season, and they have enough athleticism, size and talent to pressure the rim at will.
