The Offseason Mailbag — Vol. 1

Answering your questions from the first week of the offseason

It’s going to be a long offseason.

I’m excited for what’s to come, and will embrace all the speculation that will inevitably come our way. I mean, with no games to look forward to, most of the analysis from me will be surrounding that speculation — might be a lot of different angles to the same concept, too.

At times, I’ll also lean on some mailbags, as I always enjoy interacting with everyone and seeing where people’s heads are at — which is exactly what we’re going to do today.

Let’s dive into the questions!

Daniel Pak asks: What have you noticed about Brad Stevens trends with late 1st round draft picks?

Brad has only made two first-round draft picks since moving into the front office: Baylor Scheierman and Hugo Gonzalez.

Juhann Begarin, JD Davison, Jordan Walsh, Amari Williams, Max Shulga, and Anton Watson were all second-round pickups.

Therefore, I can’t say there’s been a trend.

In fact, Brad’s approach has been quite diverse.

Four of those players enjoyed multi-year collegiate careers.

Two of those players were international prospects, with Begarin being a draft-and-stash.

And the other two were seen as high upside swings in the second round.

Instead, I think he seeks out personalities that mesh with the roster. I’d envision him seeking out relentless workers with a high basketball IQ and good physical attributes for their positions.

Scheierman and Hugo both fit that mold. They’ve shown improvements since arriving in Boston, have stayed locked in throughout the season and contributed meaningfully within their role. Walsh fits that same mold, having fought his way into earning minutes.

Williams could be the next player on that list to step up, too.

So, I think Stevens looks for experience (long-term college or international) and work ethic. That seems to be the thread between the majority of his picks.

John Lyell asks: Will JB, White, Hauser, Pritchard be moved in the offseason?

Short answer: I have no idea.

Long answer…

I can’t see how Brad can make the improvements the Celtics need while keeping all of the four players you just named in Boston. My gut tells me someone is going to get traded, and who that is depends on the type of deal Boston gets involved in.

I wrote about Brown’s contract extension over the weekend, and I still feel like that could be a tipping point in terms of scuttlebutt regarding his future. I still believe that if the Celtics opt against offering the extension this summer, that would create the conditions necessary to potentially see Brown being legitimately involved in trade discussions.

I’m not saying he would be traded, but it would likely be the closest he’s come since Danny Ainge flirted with Kevin Durant back in 2022.

White is arguably the most interesting name on this list. I think there are very fair reasons why he endured such a difficult season — multiple role changes, lack of rhythm in his role, etc — I also think he is one of the most important members of the rotation. Still, that doesn’t stop me from thinking Boston could look to move on from him while his value is still relatively high.

By the time the new season starts, White will be 32 years old. He has three more years left on his current contract, with his money jumping up in $2 million increments each season. Brad may see this as the perfect opportunity to get a reasonable return for him now, rather than risking holding onto him for a year too long.

Hauser is another who had a down year. The problem for him is that Scheierman’s emergence has made him somewhat disposable. Trading Hauser on his own won’t get you much in return, but his contract could play a key role in wider trade discussions, either as a straight-up deal for Boston or with the team helping facilitate a move elsewhere.

Pritchard, however, is someone I would class as borderline untouchable. He’s on one of the best value contracts in the NBA, is among the best bench players in the league, and most importantly, the Celtics would be worse off for trading him.

If I were to grade in terms of likelihood, it would look like this:

Hauser = Most likely

White = Somewhat likely.

Brown = Maybe, sorta, kinda likely, depending on how his extension plays out and if the Celtics go big game hunting.

Pritchard = Extremely unlikely

John Lyell asks: JB's top destinations?

Atlanta Hawks

Whenever you talk about a potential Brown trade, the Atlanta Hawks have to be part of the conversation. They’re his hometown team, and they currently lack a star-level leader following their decision to trade away Trae Young.

Do I think the Hawks make a move for Brown? No. I think they’re all in on their current developmental timeline. However, if Brown is available, and he makes it clear he wants to head to his hometown, I think they could be swayed.

Milwaukee Bucks

For obvious reasons.

I think there are a few different packages Boston can try and build for Giannis, but any realistic ones would have to include Brown, and for that reason, we’ve got to view Milwaukee as a potential top destination for him.

Miami Heat

Pat Riley loves All-Stars. Boston would love Bam Adebayo.

Wishful thinking here, but I think Brown would be an ideal fit for an Erik Spoelstra-coached team. He already has the grit, the talent, and the winning mentality needed to succeed in Miami. I can’t see the Heat parting with Bam, though, and for me, any deal involving Brown and Miami would start and stop with the talented big man.

Sacramento Kings

Would Scott Perry look to swap Domantas Sabonis for Brown? Would Boston work with a deal built around those two being swapped out? It wouldn’t be difficult to make the money work.

Boston would probably demand Keegan Murray as part of the deal.

Either way, the Kings could be a sneaky player in any Brown sweepstakes, especially as they will likely look to reshape the current roster this summer.

Chris Figee asks: You think Brad will try to change the Mazulla ball / 3 point first system or trade only for players that fit in that model?

“I just want to win, and I don’t think play style comes before roster,” Stevens said. “You’ve got to figure out who you have and then play to the strengths of your team, but that’s on both ends of the court. And listen, I thought our coaching staff did an amazing job this year in the series. I think we all could have done better — there’s no question about it. I think we’re all looking forward to improving off of that. But I think it starts with we have to put the best roster we possibly can together, and then we need to maximize the strengths of that group.”

Those were Stevens’ words during his news conference last Wednesday.

Judging by those comments, I think Brad is very much in the camp of roster first, system second. I think his comments about needing more rim pressure are also telling.

I’d be surprised if there was a disconnect between Joe Mazzulla and Brad. However, I think it’s clear that Brad wants some variation to Boston’s approach, and because of that, could look to add some new scoring profiles to the roster.

Does that mean the Celtics will move away from being a three-point-heavy, math-led team? I doubt it. But I do think there will be an effort to find additional balance in terms of shot diet, even if just as a counter to when teams push up high on defense, or shooting variance has begun playing a part during games.

I find this topic to be really interesting, and think Brad’s moves this summer would be worth examining through this lens.

Also, I did a podcast on this topic over the weekend, where we discussed Brad’s comments, what it could mean for Joe’s system and why alignment is one of the most important things for the Celtics front office and coaching staff heading into the summer.

Chris Figee asks: Which of the younger ones do you see as “keep em” and who are possible trade chips ?

It’s hard to see any of the younger guys as trade chips, primarily due to their limited contracts. Most of Boston’s developmental talent is earning around $2 - $3 million.

If they were to get traded, it would likely be as a sweetener to a larger deal, which, of course, happens all the time around the league.

Still, I would personally like to see Boston keep hold of Scheierman, Garza and Hugo. I don’t imagine Neemias Queta is going anywhere either.

That would leave Amari Williams, Max Shulga, Jordan Walsh and Ron Harper Jr as potential tradable assets. However, it’s important to note that all of those guys have team options for next season. There’s no guarantee those options will be picked up, so they may not be available to be floated in a trade.

Assuming Brad plans to reposition the Celtics as a bona fide contender next season, it’s hard to envision the roster being made up of so many young guys. However, if the goal is to remain out of the tax to reset the repeater, his hands may be tied.

Nevertheless, I would assume at least two of the developmental crew are allowed to walk this summer, and my guess would be Shulga and Walsh.

….And there we have it. The first mailbag of what's going to be a very long and potentially very chaotic offseason is in the books. I have a feeling these questions are only going to get more interesting as the summer heats up. I can’t wait for the next one!