Was Luka Garza's Performance Against The Raptors A False Dawn?
Luka Garza’s 12-point, 10-rebound night might have earned him minutes, but the data suggests the Celtics’ second unit still has work to do.
After his performance on Saturday, Luka Garza may have earned himself some minutes back in the Boston Celtics rotation. Since starting against the Detroit Pistons on Nov. 26, the big man has rarely seen the floor, suiting up just three times in the following nine games leading up to Saturday’s win over the Toronto Raptors.
In those nine games, the Celtics have primarily stuck to a small-ball second-unit rotation. We’ve seen mixed results with that approach.
Initially, Boston rattled off five straight wins when primarily leaning on small-ball. However, after the NBA Cup break, the Celtics got punished when going small.
So, against a Raptors team missing Jakob Poeltl, which hurt their center depth, Mazzulla reintroduced Garza to the second-unit rotation. The results were encouraging.
Garza ended the night with 12 points, 10 rebounds (9 on the offensive glass), 2 assists and 1 block. He was fighting to prove himself to Mazzulla and the coaching staff, in the hope of carving out a role for himself moving forward.
On that one-game sample, Garza has done enough to earn a bigger slice of the minutes distribution moving forward.
However, when you look at his overall effectiveness over the 20 games he’s played in, things get murky.
According to Cleaning The Glass, which automatically filters out garbage time, the Celtics have struggled on both ends of the floor when Garza is anchoring the paint.
In 525 possessions, the Celtics are losing by an average of -8.7 points per 100 possessions, with a league-worst free-throw rate of 13.4%, and a 14th percentile eFG% of 51.5. Defensively, they’re awful, allowing 123.8 points per 100 possessions, allowing a 30.4% offensive rebound rate, and getting scored on with a 55.5 eFG%.
Simply put, the Garza anchored minutes are ugly.
Like really ugly.
If we flip that filter and keep Neemias Queta, Boucher, Garza and Tillman out of the rotation, thus allowing for small-ball only lineups, the numbers take a drastic upturn — at least offensively.
In 527 possessions, the Celtics are winning by an average of +9.1 points per 100 possessions, with an almost league-leading offensive output of 131.3 points per 100 possessions and 61.8 eFG%.
The problem is, the defense is atrocious. They’re allowing 122.2 points per 100 possessions, getting gobbled up on the defensive glass on 34% of opposing teams’ missed shots, and fouling once every four defensive possessions.
The bigger issue here is that, regardless of whether Boston’s bench rotation goes big with Garza or stays small, the defensive execution is a legitimate issue. In fact, in all non-Queta minutes, the defense falls off a cliff.
With Queta on the court, Boston’s defense ranks in the 90th percentile for points allowed per 100, with 108.7.
When he goes to the bench, that craters to a seventh-percentile 123.6 points per 100.
The drop off is incredible.
And while some of that is a credit to Queta, who has shown significant improvement this season, the bigger lesson is that Mazzulla needs another reliable rim protector who can deter, alter, and contest shots in and around the paint.
Until that happens, the Celtics’ defense will continue to fluctuate. I mean, right now, Cleaning The Glass has Boston ranked 17th for defense. A primary part of those struggles is the limited defensive rebounding.
Mazzulla’s team allows an offensive rebound 32% of the time, placing them 29th in the NBA. Only the Washington Wizards are worse, with 33.5%.
You could argue that Garza’s defense and defensive rebounding will improve with reps and hard coaching. After all, he’s proven he’s got a nose for the ball when hunting boards on offense. Surely there’s some upside on the defensive glass, too?
I’d argue that’s wishful thinking.
Instead, the most likely path toward improving the overall depth at center is the trade market. If the Celtics can find a high-level center, they will have the necessary depth to enhance the team’s overall defense and rebounding.
Queta is already carrying too much of a load.
Fortunately, we’re officially in trade season. And, knowing that Brad Stevens likes to move in silence, we’re always just a Shams tweet away from another big heading to the Celtics.
In the meantime, Mazzulla has to continue searching for the right balance. Going small has its advantages, especially offensively. However, the limited defense means that the small-ball lineup is consistently facing a set defense, which in turn, limits some of its effectiveness.
At least with Garza in the rotation, you have second-chance opportunities, some floor spacing, an additional screener and the hope that he can start implementing his rebounding on the defensive glass.
Truth be told, Mazzulla will be best served by iterating through his options on a game-by-game basis. When teams are either lacking size or going double big, adding Garza into their plans is the logical decision. When they’re facing a single-big team, especially if that center is slow-footed, small-ball emerges as a better bet.
Ultimately, this is a roster issue, not a rotation one. Garza’s limitations are real. Small-ball’s defensive costs are unavoidable. And Queta can’t carry the entire burden alone. If the Celtics want stability from their bench defense, it’s unlikely to come from internal tinkering — it’ll come from adding another center who can, ideally, step into a leading role.
I just hope the price for a quality big doesn’t hamper us too much with the good youngs, especially Walsh and Hugo—while you’d prefer not to give them up, a team with a really good big to trade would be doing malpractice not to see if they could pry one of them away
Good article. What do you think about Amari Williams being able to fill that hole?