Who had that on their bingo card?
Initial thoughts on the Boston Celtics adding Nikola Vucevic
The Boston Celtics have addressed their center position. They’ve flipped Anfernee Simons and a second-round pick in return for Nikola Vucevic…and a second round pick.
Not the glamorous pick-up some of us hoped for. And, not the young stud that I had begun talking myself into. Instead, the Celtics get a veteran big man who can stretch the floor, control the glass and facilitate a little, too.
One thing stands out to me, though: this trade feels like a rental.
Like Simons, Vucevic is on an expiring contract. He, too, will become an unrestricted free agent in the summer. Unless he has a monster start to his tenure in Boston, he’s likely heading into the free-agency pool this summer.
I have two key questions right now, as I’m still compartmentalizing this deal:
Does the tax matter more than what we were led to believe? After all, this deal brings the Celtics out of the first apron and just $6 million above the luxury tax. One more move, and boom, Brad Stevens has succeeded in his cost-cutting measures. Well, this move suggests so. The Celtics have clearly added to an area of need, but have done so with a move that serves the purpose of getting closer to being under the luxury tax.
Will Vucevic step into a starting role for the remainder of the season? At which point, he could derail the growth we’ve seen from Neemias Queta over the opening months of the campaign. I mean, I haven’t been against an upgrade, but that was under the assumption it would be a long-term gig.
Don’t get me wrong, Vucevic can light it up. He was producing borderline All-Star numbers last season.
The problem is that a key skill Mazzulla demands of his bigs (screening ability) is among Vucevic’s biggest weaknesses.
I would assume the Celtics counter this by running him off ghost screens or pick-and-pop actions on an empty side, so defenses are less likely to send two. In truth, Boston has Luka Garza, Queta and even Xavier Tillman, who can all screen at a high level. Vucevic’s floor spacing and ability to stretch a defense are valuable additions, even if his aversion to bone-crunchers could be frustrating while he adapts.
Then there’s defense. Vuc, like Queta and Garza, is a drop big. If he gets pulled onto the perimeter, it’s curtains.
The Celtics have done a good job of funneling traffic toward the big this season. They pinch at the elbows, deny dribble penetration and allow the big to shuttle between the low and high helplines. Of course, this only works until the Celtics get into a playoff series and coaches start scheming ways of creating consistent mismatches on Vucevic. How things look at that point will be a key part of how we view this trade longer term.
Vuc could absolutely do well in that role, as his interior defensive numbers aren’t awful.
Far from it, actually…
I’m not going to judge the validity of this move — from an on-court standpoint — until I see it in practice.
From a roster-building perspective, I do worry the Celtics have become short-handed at the guard position. Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and Baylor Scheierman are the top three (healthy) ball-handlers right now. You can throw Brown in there too, although his role hasn’t been highly predicated on creation for others this season.
With Chris Boucher and Tillman both potential trade candidates, and a string of Traded Player Exceptions (the Celtics just created another one worth $27 million with this move, using the Kristaps Porzingis TPE to absorb Vucevic), there’s still time for them to go out and grab a guard.
I like Ayo Dosunmu. And the Bulls have an overflow of ball-handlers now. But do the Celtics really want another expiring contract to deal with in the summer?
Or, do they view the ball-handling role as something that will self-correct if/when Jayson Tatum returns to the floor?
If it’s the latter, then cool. I get it. But there’s no guarantee of when Tatum is coming back, if he even comes back this season. And if he does, then he needs time to ramp up. You can’t be like “welcome back, here’s the keys to the offense, Jayson.”
For now, all we can do is wait and see how things look after the trade deadline. With just $6 million to shave off and get under the tax, I’m expecting another move. I think we all are.
Maybe Stevens likes the idea of having some wiggle room in free agency. Maybe Vuc is a long-ish term play if he re-signs for a smaller salary.
All I know is that this trade doesn’t feel like a mistake. It just doesn’t feel like an answer, either. Still, we should start getting some semblance of an understanding over the next week or so. Some things I’m going to be looking out for are the following:
Does Vucevic slide into a starting role within a few games of him being part of the rotation
Do Queta’s minutes shrink?
What happens to Garza now?
And if the Celtics don’t add another guard, how much more responsibility will Scheierman take on until Tatum is back?
Lots of questions. Plenty of time for answers. But right now, it’s time for me to go and watch a film. I’ll be back tomorrow with my findings — and we can get back to postgame content once the deadline has passed.
I haven't put out my trade grade piece yet (it's written, but I'm waiting on one more move ha), but I'm largely of the same mind.
My biggest qualm: the Celtics already have an incredible offense and shaky defense. Adding a decent offensive player won't actually improve the offense much, but eating into Queta's minutes could well submarine the defense.
The C's need someone who can rim-run, set hard screens, and protect the rim. I promise that Bball-Index's numbers are lying haha; he will try hard but be bad because he's old, slow, and physically limited.
I assume he'll start, but I hope he simply becomes a high-leverage backup eating Garza's minutes instead. Guess we'll see.
Far be it from me to second-guess Brad Stevens, but not my favorite move. Wish they'd gone after a more capable defender instead.
I’m certainly an In Brad We Trust guy at this point, I hope Simons has a great career and that his time with the Celtics helps him springboard to loftier heights. I don’t dislike Vucevic, and I hope Joe and staff can do something with him as well—he’s a guy I feel like might experience some rejuvenation just being on an honest to god playoff team. In the end though he’s an expiring and a salary slot that is helping us get under the tax, which seems like it’s a real thing for us. Here’s a question: I thought that getting out of the tax for a true reset meant you had to be there two seasons in a row. Do we really think the Celtics can be under the first apron, let alone the full tax, for two years running while in JB and JT’s primes?