No Kristaps Porzingis. No Al Horford. No Problem.
Joe Mazzulla has consistently trusted Neemias Queta and Luke Kornet during the early stretch of the season.
Both bigs have had their moments.
Neemy has proven to be incredibly effective as a rim protector and shot deterrent, while Kornet has been great at allowing the offense to flow with freedom and fluidity. Yet, in recent weeks, Neemy seems to have pulled ahead in the rotation, earning starter minutes over Kornet or even keeping him glued to the bench.
The math behind Neemy’s boost in playing time makes sense.
According to Cleaning The Glass, the Celtics have a +10.9 point differential in the 538 possessions Neemy has been on the court. That means, for every 100 possessions involving Queta, the Celtics are outscoring teams by 10.9 points. The breakdown looks like this: 122.7 points scored per 100, 111.8 points allowed per 100.
Kornet isn’t lagging too far behind, though. Boston are +9.8 in the 470 possessions he’s been on the floor. The breakdown looks like this: 126 points scored per 100, 116.2 allowed per 100.
When you’re missing your All-Star big man, finding any advantage from your deeper rotation is imperative. As the math shows above, Neemy is producing a slightly stronger impact than Kornet — not by much — but when fighting for minutes, sometimes you only need a slim margin.
So, now you’ve seen the basic math behind Neemy’s rise up the big man rotation. The problem is that basketball isn’t played on a calculator or an Excel sheet. More goes into producing a stifling defense than having a 7-foot shot deterrent. Sure, it helps, but it’s not the magic wand that some believe it to be.
And herein lies the problem. Despite the numbers telling us the Celtics have a marginal advantage with Neemy on the court, the eye test is sending mixed signals to us (well, me, at least) about who brings more value.
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